Skip to content
WTA 125 CaliRound of 32claybest of three sets

Carle vs Papamichail 1:2: result and our tips

·

Maria CarleWTA #232Elo 1580clay 1595
1:2final2:6 7:5 4:6
Despina PapamichailWTA #209Elo 1514clay 1504

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Over 17.5Won73%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Papamichail: 10 matches in a row over 17.5 games; Over 17.5 games in recent matches: Carle 15 of 20, Papamichail 16 of 20 (tour average 68%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Maria Carle71%
Despina Papamichail29%

Elo: M. Carle 63% · D. Papamichail 37%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 M. Carle47%
2:1 M. Carle23%
2:1 D. Papamichail15%
2:0 D. Papamichail17%

First set

Maria Carle63%
Despina Papamichail37%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes37%
no63%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 20.5 · 50%market (no margin): 51%

The 20.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 22.0

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
17.573%27%68%
18.565%35%59%
19.557%43%52%
20.550%50%45%
21.546%54%41%
22.541%59%37%
23.537%63%33%

Sample: 1,296 matches

Games handicap

M. Carle −4.546%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes21%

tour average 20%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite lost
  • Most likely set scorewas 1:2
  • Total games Under 20.5out · 30 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Maria CarleDespina Papamichail
—Aces—
11Double faults1
98%First serves in99%
55%First-serve points won55%
40%Second-serve points won42%
6/8Break points converted8/11
7/15Service games held9/15
49%Service points won52%
48%Return points won52%
101Total points won108

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

M. CarleTourD. Papamichail
Service points won53%56%52%
Return points won47%44%46%
Service games held56%63%55%
Breaks of serve44%37%42%
Aces per service game0.090.06
Double faults per game0.490.20
Sets with a tie-break10%9%
Tie-breaks won4/82/8
Wins in straight sets47%61%
Matches in the sample3539

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Maria Carle

Despina Papamichail

Elo over the last year

Maria CarleDespina Papamichail

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

M. CarleD. Papamichail
Hard court2–433%2–250%
Clay14–1352%16–1847%
Grass1–150%0–10%

Head to head

M. Carle 0–1 D. Papamichail

  • 02/11/21Winner: D. Papamichail6:3 2:6 2:6