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WTA Hong KongWTA 250Round of 32hardbest of three sets

Cirstea vs Timofeeva 2:1: result and our tips

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Sorana CirsteaWTA #15Elo 1961hard 1933
2:1final7:6(6) 1:6 7:5
Maria TimofeevaWTA #70Elo 1857hard 1823

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Under 24.5Lost66%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Under 24.5 games in recent matches: Cirstea 16 of 20, Timofeeva 15 of 20 (tour average 68%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Sorana Cirstea69%
Maria Timofeeva31%

Elo: S. Cirstea 65% · M. Timofeeva 35%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 S. Cirstea47%
2:1 S. Cirstea21%
2:1 M. Timofeeva15%
2:0 M. Timofeeva18%

First set

Sorana Cirstea65%
Maria Timofeeva35%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes36%
no64%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 20.5 · 52%market (no margin): 51%

The 20.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 22.2

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
17.576%24%72%
18.567%33%64%
19.560%41%56%
20.552%48%49%
21.546%54%44%
22.540%60%38%
23.536%64%34%

Sample: 2,045 matches

Games handicap

S. Cirstea −3.554%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes24%

tour average 22%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorewas 2:1
  • Total games Over 20.5in · 32 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breaktie-break played

Match stats

Sorana CirsteaMaria Timofeeva
2Aces0
2Double faults3
77%First serves in72%
58%First-serve points won57%
52%Second-serve points won62%
3/12Break points converted5/6
9/14Service games held12/15
57%Service points won58%
42%Return points won43%
109Total points won115

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

S. CirsteaTourM. Timofeeva
Service points won60%56%57%
Return points won46%44%48%
Service games held72%63%66%
Breaks of serve40%37%44%
Aces per service game0.380.20
Double faults per game0.220.28
Sets with a tie-break15%10%
Tie-breaks won12/195/11
Wins in straight sets78%82%
Matches in the sample5750

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Sorana Cirstea

Maria Timofeeva

Elo over the last year

Sorana CirsteaMaria Timofeeva

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

S. CirsteaM. Timofeeva
Hard court23–1168%16–1159%
Clay14–478%13–476%
Grass3–260%4–267%

Head to head

They have not met yet.