Challenger Sioux FallsChallenger 125Round of 16hard, indoorbest of three sets
Draxl vs Ostapenkov: prediction and tips
·
Our tips
Tip in 1d 1hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon on match day, for earlier ones 3 hours before the order-of-play time.
Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength.
Winner
Liam Draxl80%
Daniil Ostapenkov20%
Elo: L. Draxl 72% · D. Ostapenkov 28%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
2:0 L. Draxl59%
2:1 L. Draxl21%
2:1 D. Ostapenkov9%
2:0 D. Ostapenkov11%
First set
Liam Draxl74%
Daniil Ostapenkov26%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes31%
no70%
Total games
The bookmakers' lineUnder 21.0 · 51%market (no margin): 49%
The 21.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).
Expected total: 22.0
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17.5 | 76% | 24% | 79% |
| 18.5 | 67% | 33% | 71% |
| 19.5 | 58% | 42% | 62% |
| 20.5 | 49% | 51% | 54% |
| 21.5 | 43% | 57% | 49% |
| 22.5 | 37% | 63% | 42% |
| 23.5 | 32% | 68% | 37% |
Sample: 3,005 matches
Games handicap
L. Draxl −4.551%
Tie-break in the match
Tie-break: yes27%
tour average 32%
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| L. Draxl | Tour | D. Ostapenkov | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 62% | 62% | 63% |
| Return points won | 40% | 38% | 39% |
| Service games held | 74% | 76% | 77% |
| Breaks of serve | 28% | 24% | 27% |
| Aces per service game | 0.41 | 0.55 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.24 | 0.35 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 18% | 20% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 14/28 | 10/15 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 49% | 60% | |
| Matches in the sample | 63 | 33 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Liam Draxl
- 27/10/26WTomasz Berkieta#647Challenger Sioux Falls · R327:6 7:6
- 17/10/26LMartin Landaluce#67Challenger Jinan · SF6:7 3:6
- 16/10/26WTomáš Macháč#71Challenger Jinan · QF6:4 3:6 6:4
- 15/10/26WIlya Ivashka#220Challenger Jinan · R166:4 0:6 6:4
- 14/10/26WJames Duckworth#68Challenger Jinan · R326:4 6:4
- 13/10/26WOmar Jasika#386Challenger Jinan · Q25:7 7:6 6:4
- 11/10/26WYutong DuChallenger Jinan · Q16:1 6:0
- 06/10/26LNikoloz Basilashvili#95ATP Shanghai · Q27:5 5:7 4:6
- 05/10/26WHugo Gaston#110ATP Shanghai · Q17:5 6:4
- 23/09/26LHenry Searle#217Challenger San Diego 2 · R166:7 6:2 4:6
Daniil Ostapenkov
- 27/10/26WOzan Baris#407Challenger Sioux Falls · R326:1 6:1
- 26/10/26WGavin Young#531Challenger Sioux Falls · Q26:2 3:6 6:3
- 25/10/26WQuinn Vandecasteele#469Challenger Sioux Falls · Q16:4 6:4
- 18/10/26LAlbert Pedrico KravtsovChallenger Fort Worth · Q16:7 5:7
- 01/10/26LAbdullah Shelbayh#308Challenger Columbus · R161:6 5:7
- 29/09/26WRaphael Perot#336Challenger Columbus · R321:6 6:3 6:4
- 28/09/26WQuinn Vandecasteele#469Challenger Columbus · Q26:2 7:6
- 27/09/26WIlija PalavestraChallenger Columbus · Q17:6 6:1
- 21/09/26LTimo Legout#343Challenger San Diego 2 · Q23:6 1:6
- 20/09/26WQuinn Vandecasteele#469Challenger San Diego 2 · Q17:5 4:6 6:3
Elo over the last year
Liam DraxlDaniil Ostapenkov
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| L. Draxl | D. Ostapenkov | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 30–1961% | 16–1159% |
| Clay | 7–654% | 4–267% |
| Grass | 0–10% | 0–0 |
Head to head
They have not met yet.
Road through the tournament
Liam Draxl
- 27/10/26WTomasz Berkieta#647Challenger Sioux Falls · R327:6 7:6
Daniil Ostapenkov
- 25/10/26WQuinn Vandecasteele#469Challenger Sioux Falls · Q16:4 6:4
- 26/10/26WGavin Young#531Challenger Sioux Falls · Q26:2 3:6 6:3
- 27/10/26WOzan Baris#407Challenger Sioux Falls · R326:1 6:1