Challenger Sioux FallsChallenger 125Round of 32hard, indoorbest of three sets
Ostapenkov vs Baris 2:0: result and our tips
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Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.
Winner
Daniil Ostapenkov32%
Ozan Baris68%
Elo: D. Ostapenkov 61% · O. Baris 39%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
2:0 D. Ostapenkov18%
2:1 D. Ostapenkov14%
2:1 O. Baris22%
2:0 O. Baris46%
First set
Daniil Ostapenkov37%
Ozan Baris63%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes36%
no64%
Total games
Expected total: 23.2
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18.5 | 75% | 25% | 71% |
| 19.5 | 66% | 34% | 62% |
| 20.5 | 58% | 42% | 54% |
| 21.5 | 53% | 47% | 49% |
| 22.5 | 46% | 54% | 42% |
| 23.5 | 40% | 60% | 37% |
| 24.5 | 38% | 62% | 35% |
Sample: 5,090 matches
Games handicap
O. Baris −3.549%
Tie-break in the match
Tie-break: yes35%
tour average 32%
Bookmakers offer no tie-break bet on this match.
How the forecast did
Tip worked out after the fact from pre-match data — the board was not published yet at the time.
- Favouritefavourite lost
- Most likely set scorewas 2:0
- Total games Over 21.5out · 14 games
- Games handicapnot covered
Match stats
| Daniil Ostapenkov | Ozan Baris | |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Aces | 3 |
| 2 | Double faults | 3 |
| 63% | First serves in | 57% |
| 95% | First-serve points won | 56% |
| 75% | Second-serve points won | 16% |
| 5/8 | Break points converted | 0/0 |
| 7/7 | Service games held | 2/7 |
| 88% | Service points won | 39% |
| 61% | Return points won | 13% |
| 55 | Total points won | 21 |
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| D. Ostapenkov | Tour | O. Baris | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 62% | 62% | 63% |
| Return points won | 39% | 38% | 38% |
| Service games held | 76% | 76% | 77% |
| Breaks of serve | 26% | 24% | 23% |
| Aces per service game | 0.56 | 0.37 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.35 | 0.23 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 20% | 11% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 10/15 | 2/5 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 58% | 70% | |
| Matches in the sample | 32 | 19 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Daniil Ostapenkov
- 26/10/26WGavin Young#531Challenger Sioux Falls · Q26:2 3:6 6:3
- 25/10/26WQuinn Vandecasteele#469Challenger Sioux Falls · Q16:4 6:4
- 18/10/26LAlbert Pedrico KravtsovChallenger Fort Worth · Q16:7 5:7
- 01/10/26LAbdullah Shelbayh#308Challenger Columbus · R161:6 5:7
- 29/09/26WRaphael Perot#336Challenger Columbus · R321:6 6:3 6:4
- 28/09/26WQuinn Vandecasteele#469Challenger Columbus · Q26:2 7:6
- 27/09/26WIlija PalavestraChallenger Columbus · Q17:6 6:1
- 21/09/26LTimo Legout#343Challenger San Diego 2 · Q23:6 1:6
- 20/09/26WQuinn Vandecasteele#469Challenger San Diego 2 · Q17:5 4:6 6:3
- 14/09/26LTimo Legout#343Challenger Tiburon · Q23:6 4:6
Ozan Baris
- 26/10/26LJames Kent Trotter#551Challenger Sioux Falls · Q26:7 7:6 5:7
- 25/10/26WHunter Heck#598Challenger Sioux Falls · Q16:3 6:4
- 20/10/26LCosme Rolland de Ravel#581Challenger Fort Worth · R321:6 2:6
- 28/09/26LBraden Shick#205Challenger Columbus · R326:7 6:0 3:6
- 22/09/26LIgor Marcondes#262Challenger San Diego 2 · R321:6 3:6
- 21/09/26WAlex Rybakov#636Challenger San Diego 2 · Q21:6 6:3 6:4
- 20/09/26WShunsuke Mitsui#589Challenger San Diego 2 · Q16:1 6:2
- 14/09/26LEvan Zhu#462Challenger Tiburon · Q24:6 6:4 4:6
- 13/09/26WLorenzo Claverie#865Challenger Tiburon · Q16:4 4:6 6:2
- 06/08/26LEdas Butvilas#208Challenger Lexington · R160:6 2:6
Elo over the last year
Daniil OstapenkovOzan Baris
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| D. Ostapenkov | O. Baris | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 15–1158% | 9–853% |
| Clay | 4–267% | 0–0 |
| Grass | 0–0 | 1–150% |
Head to head
They have not met yet.
Road through the tournament
Daniil Ostapenkov
- 25/10/26WQuinn Vandecasteele#469Challenger Sioux Falls · Q16:4 6:4
- 26/10/26WGavin Young#531Challenger Sioux Falls · Q26:2 3:6 6:3
Ozan Baris
- 25/10/26WHunter Heck#598Challenger Sioux Falls · Q16:3 6:4
- 26/10/26LJames Kent Trotter#551Challenger Sioux Falls · Q26:7 7:6 5:7