Challenger PalermoChallenger 50Semifinalclaybest of three sets

Forejtek vs Moro Canas 2:1: result and our tips

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Jonas ForejtekATP #343Elo 1696clay 1693
2:1final6:7(1) 6:4 7:6(4)
Alejandro Moro CanasATP #233Elo 1764clay 1759

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Over 18.5Won72%

Where the number comes from: market alone 74% → with the players' profiles 72%

Over 18.5 games in recent matches: Forejtek 18 of 20, Moro Canas 17 of 20 (tour average 68%)

Long shot
1st Set Winner: ForejtekLost44%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Forejtek: 3 matches in a row winning the first set

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Jonas Forejtek46%
Alejandro Moro Canas54%

Elo: J. Forejtek 41% · A. Moro Canas 59%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 J. Forejtek27%
2:1 J. Forejtek19%
2:1 A. Moro Canas20%
2:0 A. Moro Canas35%

First set

Jonas Forejtek46%
Alejandro Moro Canas54%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes39%
no61%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 22.0 · 50%market (no margin): 48%

The 22.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 22.8

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
18.572%28%68%
19.563%37%59%
20.556%44%52%
21.550%50%47%
22.544%56%40%
23.540%60%36%
24.538%62%34%

Sample: 4,535 matches

Games handicap

Alejandro Moro Canas −1.550%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes27%

tour average 27%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite lost
  • Most likely set scorewas 2:1
  • Total games Under 22.0out · 36 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breaktie-break played

Match stats

Jonas ForejtekAlejandro Moro Canas
3Aces6
2Double faults2
66%First serves in66%
68%First-serve points won65%
51%Second-serve points won61%
3/15Break points converted2/5
15/17Service games held14/17
62%Service points won64%
36%Return points won38%
114Total points won119

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

J. ForejtekTourA. Moro Canas
Service points won62%62%63%
Return points won41%38%39%
Service games held77%76%75%
Breaks of serve29%24%27%
Aces per service game0.340.29
Double faults per game0.140.16
Sets with a tie-break15%22%
Tie-breaks won10/2020/37
Wins in straight sets61%54%
Matches in the sample5470

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Jonas Forejtek

Alejandro Moro Canas

Elo over the last year

Jonas ForejtekAlejandro Moro Canas

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

J. ForejtekA. Moro Canas
Hard court7–464%18–1260%
Clay24–1956%21–1657%
Grass0–02–167%

Head to head

They have not met yet.

Road through the tournament

Jonas Forejtek

Alejandro Moro Canas