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Challenger Villa MariaChallenger 50Round of 32claybest of three sets

Gagliardo vs Nijboer 1:2: result and our tips

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Lorenzo GagliardoATP #787Elo 1478clay 1478
1:2final7:6(5) 6:7(3) 4:6
Ryan NijboerATP #384Elo 1572clay 1578

Our tips

No tip for this match: when the tips were published, no bet on offer had clear support in our data. We never force a tip.

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Lorenzo Gagliardo31%
Ryan Nijboer69%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 L. Gagliardo17%
2:1 L. Gagliardo14%
2:1 R. Nijboer23%
2:0 R. Nijboer46%

First set

Lorenzo Gagliardo36%
Ryan Nijboer64%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes37%
no63%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 21.0 · 51%market (no margin): 49%

The 21.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 22.8

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
18.573%27%68%
19.564%36%59%
20.557%44%52%
21.551%49%46%
22.544%56%40%
23.539%61%36%
24.537%63%34%

Sample: 4,084 matches

Games handicap

R. Nijboer −3.552%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes30%

tour average 27%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorewas 1:2
  • Total games Over 21.0in · 36 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breaktie-break played

Match stats

Lorenzo GagliardoRyan Nijboer
1Aces2
2Double faults8
74%First serves in64%
67%First-serve points won73%
50%Second-serve points won50%
2/10Break points converted3/8
14/17Service games held15/17
62%Service points won64%
36%Return points won38%
118Total points won125

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

L. GagliardoTourR. Nijboer
Service points won—62%62%
Return points won—38%41%
Service games held—76%78%
Breaks of serve—24%29%
Aces per service game—0.36
Double faults per game—0.25
Sets with a tie-break—10%
Tie-breaks won—3/7
Wins in straight sets—58%
Matches in the sample—32

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Lorenzo Gagliardo

  • 02/11/26WIan Luca VertbergerChallenger Villa Maria · Q26:0 6:0
  • 01/11/26WTadeo MeneoChallenger Villa Maria · Q16:1 6:0
  • 23/04/23LMatias ZukasChallenger Buenos Aires · Q14:6 6:0 4:6
  • 02/01/22LAlec Deckers#573Challenger Buenos Aires · Q16:7 6:4 4:6

Ryan Nijboer

Elo over the last year

Lorenzo GagliardoRyan Nijboer

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

L. GagliardoR. Nijboer
Hard court0–00–10%
Clay2–0100%19–1261%

Head to head

They have not met yet.

Road through the tournament

Lorenzo Gagliardo

Ryan Nijboer

First match in this tournament.

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