ATP ShanghaiMasters 1000Round of 16hardbest of three sets

Gea vs Menšík 2:0: result and our tips

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Arthur GeaATP #56Elo 2022hard 2024
2:0final7:6(4) 6:4
Jakub MenšíkATP #15Elo 2083hard 2064

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Over 21.5Won61%

Where the number comes from: market alone 59% → with the players' profiles 61%

Gea: 4 matches in a row over 21.5 games

Other tips

  • Match Winner: MensikLost61%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 61%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Mensik won 7 of the last 10 matches

Long shot
Total Games: Over 25.5Lost40%

Where the number comes from: market alone 38% → with the players' profiles 40%

Gea: 4 matches in a row over 25.5 games

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Arthur Gea38%
Jakub Menšík62%

Elo: A. Gea 44% · J. Menšík 56%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 A. Gea22%
2:1 A. Gea18%
2:1 J. Menšík22%
2:0 J. Menšík39%

First set

Arthur Gea42%
Jakub Menšík58%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes39%
no61%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 23.0 · 47%market (no margin): 49%

The 23.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 24.3

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
19.575%25%68%
20.567%34%60%
21.560%40%54%
22.553%47%46%
23.546%54%39%
24.542%58%38%
25.539%61%35%

Sample: 5,728 matches

Games handicap

Jakub Menšík −2.550%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes45%

tour average 39%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite lost
  • Most likely set scorewas 2:0
  • Total games Under 23.0out · 23 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breaktie-break played

Match stats

Arthur GeaJakub Menšík
11Aces6
1Double faults0
64%First serves in65%
79%First-serve points won71%
59%Second-serve points won67%
1/4Break points converted0/2
11/11Service games held10/11
72%Service points won70%
30%Return points won28%
75Total points won69

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

A. GeaTourJ. Menšík
Service points won64%62%66%
Return points won40%38%37%
Service games held81%76%84%
Breaks of serve27%24%21%
Aces per service game0.460.81
Double faults per game0.320.29
Sets with a tie-break20%20%
Tie-breaks won22/3619/29
Wins in straight sets58%54%
Matches in the sample7250

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Arthur Gea

Jakub Menšík

Elo over the last year

Arthur GeaJakub Menšík

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

A. GeaJ. Menšík
Hard court35–980%26–974%
Clay12–860%8–467%
Grass5–456%1–233%

Head to head

They have not met yet.

Road through the tournament

Arthur Gea

Jakub Menšík