Honda vs Peliwo 2:1: result and our tips
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Our tips
Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.
Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data
Peliwo: 5 matches in a row under 23.5 games
Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.
Winner
Elo: N. Honda 44% · F. Peliwo 56%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
First set
Total games
The 22.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).
Expected total: 23.5
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19.5 | 68% | 32% | 62% |
| 20.5 | 60% | 40% | 54% |
| 21.5 | 55% | 45% | 49% |
| 22.5 | 47% | 53% | 42% |
| 23.5 | 42% | 58% | 37% |
| 24.5 | 40% | 60% | 35% |
| 25.5 | 36% | 64% | 32% |
Sample: 5,516 matches
Games handicap
Tie-break in the match
tour average 32%
Bookmakers offer no tie-break bet on this match.
How the forecast did
Tip worked out after the fact from pre-match data — the board was not published yet at the time.
- Favouritefavourite won
- Most likely set scorewas 2:1
- Total games Over 22.0in · 34 games
- Games handicapcovered
Match stats
| Naoya Honda | Filip Peliwo | |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Aces | 7 |
| 4 | Double faults | 1 |
| 65% | First serves in | 64% |
| 71% | First-serve points won | 71% |
| 50% | Second-serve points won | 47% |
| 5/8 | Break points converted | 4/8 |
| 12/16 | Service games held | 12/17 |
| 64% | Service points won | 62% |
| 38% | Return points won | 36% |
| 100 | Total points won | 98 |
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| N. Honda | Tour | F. Peliwo | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 65% | 62% | 59% |
| Return points won | 39% | 38% | 37% |
| Service games held | 79% | 76% | 70% |
| Breaks of serve | 25% | 24% | 21% |
| Aces per service game | 0.44 | 0.32 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.31 | 0.22 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 13% | 17% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 3/7 | 7/11 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 77% | 73% | |
| Matches in the sample | 24 | 29 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Naoya Honda
- 26/10/26WKhumoyun Sultanov#416Challenger Ningbo · Q13:6 7:5 6:4
- 25/10/26WRyuki Matsuda#659Challenger Ningbo · Q16:3 6:3
- 18/10/26LKasidit Samrej#368Challenger Guangzhou Nansha · Q16:4 3:6 5:7
- 04/10/26LKristjan TammChallenger Wuning 3 · Q16:7 4:6
- 28/09/26LMarat Sharipov#223Challenger Jingshan · Q16:7 2:6
- 17/09/26LPetr Bar Biryukov#331Challenger Guangzhou (Huangpu) · R163:6 4:6
- 16/09/26WNikoloz Basilashvili#95Challenger Guangzhou (Huangpu) · R322:6 7:6
- 14/09/26WJesse Flores#810Challenger Guangzhou (Huangpu) · Q26:4 6:4
- 13/09/26WHao DuanChallenger Guangzhou (Huangpu) · Q16:2 6:3
- 01/06/26LAlexander Donski#515Challenger Centurion 2 · Q26:2 3:6 4:6
Filip Peliwo
- 26/10/26WLuca Castelnuovo#446Challenger Ningbo · Q17:6 6:1
- 25/10/26WSaba Purtseladze#571Challenger Ningbo · Q16:2 6:3
- 07/10/26LTimofei Derepasko#615Challenger Wuning 3 · R163:6 6:7
- 06/10/26WMax Purcell#616Challenger Wuning 3 · R327:6 6:1
- 28/09/26LMattia Bellucci#66Challenger Jingshan · Q12:6 4:6
- 17/09/26LMoise Kouame#176Challenger Phan Thiet 4 · R161:6 2:4
- 15/09/26WTai Leonard Sach#512Challenger Phan Thiet 4 · R321:6 6:3 6:4
- 14/09/26WSam Ryan Ziegann#817Challenger Phan Thiet 4 · Q26:1 6:4
- 13/09/26WArjun RathiChallenger Phan Thiet 4 · Q16:3 6:4
- 11/09/26LArthur Weber#398Challenger Phan Thiet 3 · QF6:7 2:6
Elo over the last year
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| N. Honda | F. Peliwo | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 13–1154% | 11–1739% |
| Clay | 0–0 | 0–10% |
Head to head
They have not met yet.
Road through the tournament
Naoya Honda
- 25/10/26WRyuki Matsuda#659Challenger Ningbo · Q16:3 6:3
- 26/10/26WKhumoyun Sultanov#416Challenger Ningbo · Q13:6 7:5 6:4
Filip Peliwo
- 25/10/26WSaba Purtseladze#571Challenger Ningbo · Q16:2 6:3
- 26/10/26WLuca Castelnuovo#446Challenger Ningbo · Q17:6 6:1