Hurkacz vs Davidovich Fokina 1:2: result and our tips
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Our tips
Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.
Where the number comes from: market alone 60% → with the players' profiles 65%
Over 21.5 games in recent matches: Hurkacz 15 of 20, Davidovich Fokina 12 of 20 (tour average 54%)
Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data
Davidovich Fokina: 4 matches in a row winning the first set; Hurkacz lost the first set in 7 of the last 20 matches, Davidovich Fokina won the first set in 17 of the last 20 matches (tour average 50%)
Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.
Winner
Elo: H. Hurkacz 53% · A. Davidovich Fokina 47%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
First set
Total games
The 25.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).
Expected total: 25.1
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20.5 | 73% | 27% | 60% |
| 21.5 | 65% | 35% | 54% |
| 22.5 | 60% | 40% | 46% |
| 23.5 | 51% | 49% | 39% |
| 24.5 | 44% | 56% | 38% |
| 25.5 | 43% | 57% | 34% |
| 26.5 | 39% | 61% | 30% |
Sample: 5,139 matches
Games handicap
Tie-break in the match
tour average 38%
How the forecast did
- Favouritefavourite lost
- Most likely set scorewas 1:2
- Total games Under 25.0out · 29 games
- Games handicapcovered
- Tie-breaktie-break played
Match stats
| Hubert Hurkacz | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | |
|---|---|---|
| 21 | Aces | 3 |
| 1 | Double faults | 0 |
| 75% | First serves in | 72% |
| 82% | First-serve points won | 64% |
| 40% | Second-serve points won | 53% |
| 3/12 | Break points converted | 2/2 |
| 12/14 | Service games held | 11/14 |
| 71% | Service points won | 61% |
| 39% | Return points won | 29% |
| 99 | Total points won | 88 |
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| H. Hurkacz | Tour | A. Davidovich Fokina | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 68% | 62% | 66% |
| Return points won | 35% | 38% | 36% |
| Service games held | 87% | 76% | 84% |
| Breaks of serve | 18% | 24% | 21% |
| Aces per service game | 0.95 | 0.38 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.20 | 0.14 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 27% | 23% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 20/38 | 19/31 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 52% | 69% | |
| Matches in the sample | 50 | 55 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Hubert Hurkacz
- 11/10/26WYi Zhou#277ATP Shanghai · R326:2 3:6 6:3
- 09/10/26WNovak Djokovic#8ATP Shanghai · R646:4 6:3
- 08/10/26WJames Duckworth#64ATP Shanghai · R1286:3 7:6
- 05/10/26LAlex de Minaur#9ATP Beijing · SF4:6 2:3
- 04/10/26WKaren Khachanov#27ATP Beijing · QF7:6 6:2
- 02/10/26WArthur Gea#56ATP Beijing · R167:6 6:7 6:2
- 01/10/26WLearner Tien#17ATP Beijing · R325:7 6:3 6:4
- 29/09/26LAlejandro Davidovich Fokina#26ATP Chengdu · F4:6 6:7
- 28/09/26WDenis Shapovalov#42ATP Chengdu · SF6:7 6:3 6:3
- 27/09/26WLloyd Harris#110ATP Chengdu · QF7:6 6:4
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
- 11/10/26WFrances Tiafoe#10ATP Shanghai · R327:6 4:6 7:6
- 09/10/26WJenson Brooksby#102ATP Shanghai · R646:1 6:3
- 01/10/26LMatteo Berrettini#46ATP Tokyo · R326:1 6:7 4:6
- 29/09/26WHubert Hurkacz#34ATP Chengdu · F6:4 7:6
- 28/09/26WNikoloz Basilashvili#124ATP Chengdu · SF4:6 6:4 6:3
- 27/09/26WAlexandre Muller#133ATP Chengdu · QF6:1 7:5
- 26/09/26WJuan Manuel Cerúndolo#55ATP Chengdu · R166:4 6:4
- 16/07/26LAlex Molcan#84ATP Umag · QF6:3 1:6 2:6
- 15/07/26WMarco Trungelliti#90ATP Umag · R166:4 7:5
- 05/07/26LFelix Auger-Aliassime#5ATP Wimbledon · R167:6 6:7 3:6 7:6 1:6
Elo over the last year
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| H. Hurkacz | A. Davidovich Fokina | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 19–1261% | 22–1167% |
| Clay | 8–562% | 5–550% |
| Grass | 4–357% | 9–375% |
Head to head
H. Hurkacz 2–4 A. Davidovich Fokina
- 29/09/26Winner: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina4:6 6:7
- 27/06/22Winner: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina6:7 4:6 7:5 6:2 6:7
- 04/05/22Winner: Hubert Hurkacz6:4 4:6 7:6
- 17/08/21Winner: Hubert Hurkacz6:1 6:7 6:1
- 25/02/21Winner: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina5:7 2:6
- 02/09/20Winner: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina4:6 6:1 2:6 2:6
Road through the tournament
Hubert Hurkacz
- 08/10/26WJames Duckworth#64ATP Shanghai · R1286:3 7:6
- 09/10/26WNovak Djokovic#8ATP Shanghai · R646:4 6:3
- 11/10/26WYi Zhou#277ATP Shanghai · R326:2 3:6 6:3
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
- 09/10/26WJenson Brooksby#102ATP Shanghai · R646:1 6:3
- 11/10/26WFrances Tiafoe#10ATP Shanghai · R327:6 4:6 7:6