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Challenger MatsuyamaChallenger 75Round of 32hardbest of three sets

Imai vs Sun 1:2: result and our tips

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Shintaro ImaiATP #929Elo 1596hard 1590
1:2final6:7(5) 6:3 3:6
Fajing SunATP #297Elo 1601hard 1597

Our tips

No tip for this match: when the tips were published, no bet on offer had clear support in our data. We never force a tip.

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Shintaro Imai31%
Fajing Sun69%

Elo: S. Imai 49% · F. Sun 51%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 S. Imai18%
2:1 S. Imai14%
2:1 F. Sun22%
2:0 F. Sun47%

First set

Shintaro Imai36%
Fajing Sun64%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes36%
no64%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 21.0 · 51%market (no margin): 51%

The 21.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 22.9

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
18.572%28%71%
19.564%36%62%
20.557%44%54%
21.551%49%49%
22.544%56%42%
23.539%61%37%
24.537%63%35%

Sample: 5,039 matches

Games handicap

F. Sun −3.550%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes32%

tour average 32%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorewas 1:2
  • Total games Over 21.0in · 31 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breaktie-break played

Match stats

Shintaro ImaiFajing Sun
8Aces2
2Double faults0
68%First serves in63%
77%First-serve points won73%
43%Second-serve points won63%
2/6Break points converted2/5
13/15Service games held13/15
66%Service points won69%
31%Return points won34%
92Total points won97

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

S. ImaiTourF. Sun
Service points won61%62%64%
Return points won42%38%38%
Service games held75%76%78%
Breaks of serve32%24%24%
Aces per service game0.610.33
Double faults per game0.260.14
Sets with a tie-break13%15%
Tie-breaks won1/27/21
Wins in straight sets80%58%
Matches in the sample761

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Shintaro Imai

Fajing Sun

  • 29/10/26LPetr Bar Biryukov#271Challenger Ningbo · R167:5 3:6 4:6
  • 27/10/26WHayato Matsuoka#246Challenger Ningbo · R324:6 6:3 7:5
  • 22/10/26LKeegan Smith#189Challenger Guangzhou Nansha · R166:3 4:6 6:7
  • 20/10/26WQian Sun#910Challenger Guangzhou Nansha · R326:4 6:2
  • 13/10/26LJie Cui#368Challenger Jinan · R323:6 5:7
  • 09/10/26LAlibek Kachmazov#347Challenger Wuning 3 · QF3:6 4:6
  • 08/10/26WKasidit Samrej#375Challenger Wuning 3 · R166:4 7:5
  • 06/10/26WAoran WangChallenger Wuning 3 · R326:3 1:0
  • 29/09/26LBernard Tomic#176Challenger Jingshan · R324:6 7:6 3:6
  • 24/09/26LRoman Safiullin#74ATP Hangzhou · R322:6 0:6

Elo over the last year

Shintaro ImaiFajing Sun

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

S. ImaiF. Sun
Hard court5–271%28–2652%
Clay0–03–350%
Grass0–00–10%

Head to head

They have not met yet.

Road through the tournament

Shintaro Imai

Fajing Sun

First match in this tournament.

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