Musetti vs Samuel: prediction and tips
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Our tips
Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.
Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data
Musetti won the first set in 14 of the last 20 matches, Samuel lost the first set in 10 of the last 20 matches (tour average 50%)
Other tips
- Match Winner: Musetti78%
Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 78%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data
Musetti won 8 of the last 10 matches
- Total Games: Over 20.558%
Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data
Musetti: 5 matches in a row over 20.5 games
Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength.
Winner
Elo: L. Musetti 77% · T. Samuel 23%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
First set
Total games
The 21.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).
Expected total: 23.3
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18.5 | 75% | 25% | 76% |
| 19.5 | 67% | 33% | 68% |
| 20.5 | 58% | 42% | 60% |
| 21.5 | 52% | 48% | 54% |
| 22.5 | 45% | 55% | 46% |
| 23.5 | 39% | 61% | 39% |
| 24.5 | 37% | 63% | 38% |
Sample: 3,565 matches
Games handicap
Tie-break in the match
tour average 39%
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| L. Musetti | Tour | T. Samuel | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 65% | 62% | 64% |
| Return points won | 38% | 38% | 42% |
| Service games held | 83% | 76% | 79% |
| Breaks of serve | 24% | 24% | 32% |
| Aces per service game | 0.37 | 0.38 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.18 | 0.21 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 16% | 14% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 9/17 | 17/25 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 69% | 77% | |
| Matches in the sample | 44 | 73 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Lorenzo Musetti
- 05/11/26LLuca Van Assche#34ATP Paris · R165:7 6:3 4:6
- 04/11/26WAlexander Zverev#1ATP Paris · R327:6 6:2
- 02/11/26WHubert Hurkacz#30ATP Paris · R647:6 7:6
- 29/10/26LArthur Fery#33ATP Vienna · R164:6 7:5 4:6
- 28/10/26WFrances Tiafoe#8ATP Vienna · R327:6 7:5
- 25/10/26WTaylor Fritz#10ATP Lyon · F6:3 6:4
- 24/10/26WFlavio Cobolli#6ATP Lyon · SF4:6 6:2 7:5
- 23/10/26WLuca Van Assche#34ATP Lyon · QF7:6 6:7 6:4
- 21/10/26WMoise Kouame#132ATP Lyon · R166:4 6:4
- 19/10/26WMatteo Arnaldi#38ATP Lyon · R326:1 6:4
Toby Samuel
- 09/11/26WLeo Borg#599ATP Stockholm · R326:3 6:2
- 08/11/26WAdrian Mannarino#61ATP Stockholm · Q23:6 7:5 6:1
- 07/11/26WKarl Friberg#816ATP Stockholm · Q17:6 6:2
- 05/11/26LJurij Rodionov#118Challenger Bratislava 2 · R163:6 4:6
- 04/11/26WLukas Pokorny#500Challenger Bratislava 2 · R327:6 7:6
- 29/10/26LClement Tabur#186Challenger Brest · R166:7 1:6
- 28/10/26WInaki Montes-de la Torre#194Challenger Brest · R326:4 6:3
- 20/10/26LZizou Bergs#44ATP Brussels · R323:6 6:7
- 07/10/26LHynek Barton#277Challenger Villena · R326:7 3:6
- 01/10/26LJerome Kym#143Challenger Porto 2 · R162:6 6:4 2:6
Elo over the last year
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| L. Musetti | T. Samuel | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 23–1168% | 41–1179% |
| Clay | 6–460% | 7–558% |
| Grass | 0–0 | 5–550% |
Head to head
They have not met yet.
Road through the tournament
Lorenzo Musetti
First match in this tournament.
Toby Samuel
- 07/11/26WKarl Friberg#816ATP Stockholm · Q17:6 6:2
- 08/11/26WAdrian Mannarino#61ATP Stockholm · Q23:6 7:5 6:1
- 09/11/26WLeo Borg#599ATP Stockholm · R326:3 6:2
Upcoming matches
- Holger Rune vs Zizou Bergs, · ATP Stockholm
- Taylor Fritz vs Cameron Norrie, · ATP Stockholm
- Borna Gojo vs Ugo Humbert, · ATP Stockholm
- Rei Sakamoto vs Kasidit Samrej, · Challenger Matsuyama
- Max Schoenhaus vs Taro Daniel, · Challenger Matsuyama
- Lorenzo Carboni vs Ioannis Xilas, · Challenger Hersonissos 3