Mannarino vs Samuel: prediction and tips
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Our tips
Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.
Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data
Samuel: 7 matches in a row without a deciding set
Other tips
- Tie-break in Match: No56%
Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data
Mannarino: 6 matches in a row without a tie-break
Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data
Mannarino lost 0-2 in 6 of the last 20 matches, Samuel won 2-0 in 11 of the last 20 matches (tour average 32%)
Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.
Winner
Elo: A. Mannarino 54% · T. Samuel 46%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
First set
Total games
The 22.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).
Expected total: 24.3
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19.5 | 75% | 25% | 68% |
| 20.5 | 67% | 33% | 60% |
| 21.5 | 61% | 39% | 54% |
| 22.5 | 53% | 47% | 46% |
| 23.5 | 46% | 54% | 40% |
| 24.5 | 44% | 56% | 38% |
| 25.5 | 40% | 60% | 35% |
Sample: 5,376 matches
Games handicap
Tie-break in the match
tour average 39%
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| A. Mannarino | Tour | T. Samuel | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 62% | 62% | 64% |
| Return points won | 36% | 38% | 41% |
| Service games held | 75% | 76% | 79% |
| Breaks of serve | 19% | 24% | 32% |
| Aces per service game | 0.40 | 0.38 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.17 | 0.21 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 16% | 15% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 14/25 | 17/25 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 50% | 78% | |
| Matches in the sample | 63 | 71 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Adrian Mannarino
- 07/11/26WJan SimonssonATP Stockholm · Q16:4 6:1
- 31/10/26LNuno Borges#49ATP Paris · Q16:4 1:6 5:7
- 30/10/26LDaniil Medvedev#5ATP Vienna · QF2:6 3:6
- 28/10/26WJakub Menšík#16ATP Vienna · R166:4 7:5
- 27/10/26WIgnacio Buse#33ATP Vienna · R320:6 7:5 6:4
- 25/10/26WAlex Molcan#78ATP Vienna · Q27:5 6:2
- 24/10/26WThiago Agustin Tirante#53ATP Vienna · Q16:4 7:6
- 23/10/26LNikoloz Basilashvili#87ATP Almaty · QF3:6 1:6
- 21/10/26WAndrey Rublev#22ATP Almaty · R166:4 3:6 6:3
- 19/10/26WAleksandar Vukic#127ATP Almaty · R327:6 4:6 6:3
Toby Samuel
- 07/11/26WKarl Friberg#813ATP Stockholm · Q17:6 6:2
- 05/11/26LJurij Rodionov#142Challenger Bratislava 2 · R163:6 4:6
- 04/11/26WLukas Pokorny#504Challenger Bratislava 2 · R327:6 7:6
- 29/10/26LClement Tabur#156Challenger Brest · R166:7 1:6
- 28/10/26WInaki Montes-de la Torre#191Challenger Brest · R326:4 6:3
- 20/10/26LZizou Bergs#40ATP Brussels · R323:6 6:7
- 07/10/26LHynek Barton#277Challenger Villena · R326:7 3:6
- 01/10/26LJerome Kym#164Challenger Porto 2 · R162:6 6:4 2:6
- 29/09/26WMackenzie McDonald#242Challenger Porto 2 · R327:5 6:1
- 02/09/26LJiří Lehečka#15ATP US Open · R644:6 2:6 4:6
Elo over the last year
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| A. Mannarino | T. Samuel | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 22–2250% | 39–1178% |
| Clay | 0–80% | 7–558% |
| Grass | 6–555% | 5–550% |
Head to head
They have not met yet.
Road through the tournament
Adrian Mannarino
- 07/11/26WJan SimonssonATP Stockholm · Q16:4 6:1
Toby Samuel
- 07/11/26WKarl Friberg#813ATP Stockholm · Q17:6 6:2
Upcoming matches
- Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Jaume Munar, · ATP Stockholm
- Alex Michelsen vs Yannick Hanfmann, · ATP Stockholm
- James Duckworth vs Cameron Norrie, · ATP Stockholm
- Max Houkes vs Tom Gentzsch, · Challenger Orleans
- Clement Tabur vs Lukas Neumayer, · Challenger Orleans
- Tomás Martín Etcheverry vs Max Dahlin, · ATP Stockholm