Zverev vs Musetti: prediction and tips
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Our tips
Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.
Where the number comes from: market alone 55% → with the players' profiles 60%
Over 21.5 games in recent matches: Zverev 17 of 20, Musetti 10 of 20 (tour average 54%); Over 21.5 games in 3 of their 3 head-to-head matches
Other tips
- 1st Set Winner: Zverev65%
Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data
Zverev won the first set in 19 of the last 20 matches, Musetti lost the first set in 6 of the last 20 matches (tour average 50%)
- Match Winner: Zverev70%
Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 70%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data
Zverev won 7 of the last 10 matches
Where the number comes from: market alone 40% → with the players' profiles 46%
Over 23.5 games in recent matches: Zverev 13 of 20, Musetti 9 of 20 (tour average 40%); Musetti: 3 matches in a row over 23.5 games
Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength.
Winner
Elo: A. Zverev 69% · L. Musetti 31%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
First set
Total games
The 22.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).
Expected total: 24.4
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19.5 | 76% | 24% | 68% |
| 20.5 | 68% | 32% | 60% |
| 21.5 | 60% | 40% | 54% |
| 22.5 | 54% | 46% | 46% |
| 23.5 | 46% | 54% | 40% |
| 24.5 | 40% | 60% | 38% |
| 25.5 | 38% | 62% | 35% |
Sample: 4,893 matches
Games handicap
Tie-break in the match
tour average 39%
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| A. Zverev | Tour | L. Musetti | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 71% | 62% | 65% |
| Return points won | 37% | 38% | 38% |
| Service games held | 90% | 76% | 83% |
| Breaks of serve | 22% | 24% | 24% |
| Aces per service game | 0.72 | 0.38 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.17 | 0.19 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 24% | 15% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 37/54 | 9/17 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 60% | 65% | |
| Matches in the sample | 79 | 47 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Alexander Zverev
- 31/10/26LAlex de Minaur#9ATP Vienna · SF4:6 6:1 6:7
- 30/10/26WArthur Fery#32ATP Vienna · QF6:0 6:2
- 29/10/26WTallon Griekspoor#50ATP Vienna · R166:4 7:5
- 27/10/26WMartin Landaluce#67ATP Vienna · R327:5 3:6 7:6
- 17/10/26LAlejandro Davidovich Fokina#17ATP Shanghai · SF7:5 4:6 3:6
- 15/10/26WAlex de Minaur#9ATP Shanghai · QF6:4 6:4
- 13/10/26WAlexander Bublik#26ATP Shanghai · R167:6 4:6 7:6
- 11/10/26WQuentin Halys#46ATP Shanghai · R326:4 6:7 6:3
- 09/10/26WYibing Wu#105ATP Shanghai · R646:4 7:6
- 04/10/26LNovak Djokovic#11ATP Beijing · QF6:4 4:6 4:6
Lorenzo Musetti
- 02/11/26WHubert Hurkacz#29ATP Paris · R647:6 7:6
- 29/10/26LArthur Fery#32ATP Vienna · R164:6 7:5 4:6
- 28/10/26WFrances Tiafoe#8ATP Vienna · R327:6 7:5
- 25/10/26WTaylor Fritz#12ATP Lyon · F6:3 6:4
- 24/10/26WFlavio Cobolli#6ATP Lyon · SF4:6 6:2 7:5
- 23/10/26WLuca Van Assche#47ATP Lyon · QF7:6 6:7 6:4
- 21/10/26WMoise Kouame#132ATP Lyon · R166:4 6:4
- 19/10/26WMatteo Arnaldi#36ATP Lyon · R326:1 6:4
- 09/10/26LYi Zhou#281ATP Shanghai · R646:7 6:3 6:7
- 03/09/26LDane Sweeny#114ATP US Open · R646:3 1:6 2:6 2:6
Elo over the last year
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| A. Zverev | L. Musetti | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 33–1175% | 25–1268% |
| Clay | 20–483% | 6–460% |
| Grass | 9–282% | 0–0 |
Head to head
A. Zverev 2–2 L. Musetti
- 25/10/25Winner: A. Zverev6:4 7:5
- 14/05/25Winner: L. Musetti6:7 4:6
- 25/10/24Winner: L. Musetti6:2 6:7 4:6
- 05/05/22Winner: A. Zverev6:3 1:0
Road through the tournament
Alexander Zverev
First match in this tournament.
Lorenzo Musetti
- 02/11/26WHubert Hurkacz#29ATP Paris · R647:6 7:6