Fery vs Musetti 2:1: result and our tips
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Our tips
Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.
Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data
Fery lost the first set in 13 of the last 20 matches, Musetti won the first set in 15 of the last 20 matches (tour average 50%)
Other tips
- Match Winner: MusettiLost74%
Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 74%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data
Musetti: 6 wins in a row; Musetti won 7 of the last 10 matches
Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data
Fery: 3 matches in a row with a tie-break
Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.
Winner
Elo: A. Fery 22% · L. Musetti 78%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
First set
Total games
The 22.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).
Expected total: 23.5
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19.5 | 69% | 31% | 68% |
| 20.5 | 61% | 39% | 60% |
| 21.5 | 54% | 46% | 54% |
| 22.5 | 47% | 53% | 46% |
| 23.5 | 40% | 60% | 40% |
| 24.5 | 38% | 62% | 38% |
| 25.5 | 35% | 65% | 35% |
Sample: 3,957 matches
Games handicap
Tie-break in the match
tour average 39%
How the forecast did
- Favouritefavourite lost
- Most likely set scorewas 2:1
- Total games Over 22.0in · 32 games
- Games handicapnot covered
- Tie-breakno tie-break
Match stats
| Arthur Fery | Lorenzo Musetti | |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | Aces | 4 |
| 0 | Double faults | 1 |
| 77% | First serves in | 69% |
| 66% | First-serve points won | 72% |
| 58% | Second-serve points won | 48% |
| 3/8 | Break points converted | 2/9 |
| 14/16 | Service games held | 13/16 |
| 64% | Service points won | 65% |
| 36% | Return points won | 36% |
| 99 | Total points won | 97 |
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| A. Fery | Tour | L. Musetti | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 63% | 62% | 64% |
| Return points won | 39% | 38% | 38% |
| Service games held | 79% | 76% | 82% |
| Breaks of serve | 25% | 24% | 24% |
| Aces per service game | 0.32 | 0.38 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.16 | 0.20 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 17% | 13% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 12/26 | 7/15 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 43% | 63% | |
| Matches in the sample | 58 | 46 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Arthur Fery
- 26/10/26WJacob Fearnley#90ATP Vienna · R325:1
- 20/10/26LBorna Gojo#133ATP Lyon · R323:6 6:7
- 09/10/26LKaren Khachanov#25ATP Shanghai · R646:7 7:6 6:7
- 07/10/26WMarin Cilic#96ATP Shanghai · R1287:6 6:1
- 01/10/26LJaime Faria#57ATP Tokyo · R324:6 6:3 4:6
- 01/09/26LLorenzo Musetti#24ATP US Open · R1283:6 3:6 5:7
- 29/08/26LIgnacio Buse#33ATP Winston Salem · F3:6 2:6
- 28/08/26WJames Duckworth#70ATP Winston Salem · SF6:4 1:2
- 28/08/26WAleksandar Kovacevic#84ATP Winston Salem · QF3:6 7:5 6:3
- 26/08/26WMees Rottgering#295ATP Winston Salem · R166:3 6:3
Lorenzo Musetti
- 28/10/26WFrances Tiafoe#8ATP Vienna · R327:6 7:5
- 25/10/26WTaylor Fritz#12ATP Lyon · F6:3 6:4
- 24/10/26WFlavio Cobolli#6ATP Lyon · SF4:6 6:2 7:5
- 23/10/26WLuca Van Assche#47ATP Lyon · QF7:6 6:7 6:4
- 21/10/26WMoise Kouame#132ATP Lyon · R166:4 6:4
- 19/10/26WMatteo Arnaldi#36ATP Lyon · R326:1 6:4
- 09/10/26LYi Zhou#281ATP Shanghai · R646:7 6:3 6:7
- 03/09/26LDane Sweeny#114ATP US Open · R646:3 1:6 2:6 2:6
- 01/09/26WArthur Fery#32ATP US Open · R1286:3 6:3 7:5
- 21/08/26LFrances Tiafoe#8ATP Cincinnati · QF6:7 5:7
Elo over the last year
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| A. Fery | L. Musetti | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 20–1263% | 24–1267% |
| Clay | 6–555% | 6–460% |
| Grass | 11–473% | 0–0 |
Head to head
A. Fery 0–1 L. Musetti
- 01/09/26Winner: L. Musetti3:6 3:6 5:7
Road through the tournament
Arthur Fery
- 26/10/26WJacob Fearnley#90ATP Vienna · R325:1
Lorenzo Musetti
- 28/10/26WFrances Tiafoe#8ATP Vienna · R327:6 7:5
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