ATP Vienna500Round of 32hard, indoorbest of three sets
Musetti vs Tiafoe: prediction and tips
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Our tips
Tip in 5mFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon on match day, for earlier ones 3 hours before the order-of-play time.
Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength.
Winner
Lorenzo Musetti46%
Frances Tiafoe54%
Elo: L. Musetti 47% · F. Tiafoe 53%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
2:0 L. Musetti27%
2:1 L. Musetti20%
2:1 F. Tiafoe20%
2:0 F. Tiafoe33%
First set
Lorenzo Musetti47%
Frances Tiafoe53%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes40%
no60%
Total games
The bookmakers' lineOver 23.0 · 48%market (no margin): 49%
The 23.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).
Expected total: 24.7
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20.5 | 70% | 30% | 60% |
| 21.5 | 63% | 37% | 54% |
| 22.5 | 56% | 44% | 46% |
| 23.5 | 48% | 52% | 40% |
| 24.5 | 45% | 55% | 38% |
| 25.5 | 42% | 58% | 35% |
| 26.5 | 37% | 63% | 30% |
Sample: 5,498 matches
Games handicap
F. Tiafoe −1.549%
Tie-break in the match
Tie-break: yes48%
tour average 39%
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| L. Musetti | Tour | F. Tiafoe | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 64% | 62% | 66% |
| Return points won | 38% | 38% | 37% |
| Service games held | 82% | 76% | 84% |
| Breaks of serve | 25% | 24% | 22% |
| Aces per service game | 0.38 | 0.47 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.20 | 0.17 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 12% | 21% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 6/14 | 19/37 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 62% | 52% | |
| Matches in the sample | 45 | 63 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Lorenzo Musetti
- 25/10/26WTaylor Fritz#13ATP Lyon · F6:3 6:4
- 24/10/26WFlavio Cobolli#6ATP Lyon · SF4:6 6:2 7:5
- 23/10/26WLuca Van Assche#46ATP Lyon · QF7:6 6:7 6:4
- 21/10/26WMoise Kouame#176ATP Lyon · R166:4 6:4
- 19/10/26WMatteo Arnaldi#36ATP Lyon · R326:1 6:4
- 09/10/26LYi Zhou#256ATP Shanghai · R646:7 6:3 6:7
- 03/09/26LDane Sweeny#112ATP US Open · R646:3 1:6 2:6 2:6
- 01/09/26WArthur Fery#35ATP US Open · R1286:3 6:3 7:5
- 21/08/26LFrances Tiafoe#9ATP Cincinnati · QF6:7 5:7
- 20/08/26WJaime Faria#57ATP Cincinnati · R167:5 6:2
Frances Tiafoe
- 11/10/26LAlejandro Davidovich Fokina#15ATP Shanghai · R326:7 6:4 6:7
- 09/10/26WYannick Hanfmann#59ATP Shanghai · R646:4 6:4
- 02/10/26LArthur Fils#8ATP Tokyo · R163:6 5:7
- 01/10/26WKei NishikoriATP Tokyo · R326:4 6:4
- 11/09/26LBen Shelton#4ATP US Open · SF6:4 3:6 3:6 5:7
- 08/09/26WAlex Michelsen#34ATP US Open · QF5:7 3:6 7:5 6:3 7:6
- 06/09/26WDaniil Medvedev#5ATP US Open · R167:6 6:4 7:6
- 04/09/26WValentin Vacherot#31ATP US Open · R326:4 6:2 6:4
- 02/09/26WRei Sakamoto#125ATP US Open · R646:3 7:6 7:5
- 01/09/26WMartin Damm Jr#105ATP US Open · R1286:4 4:6 3:6 6:3 6:4
Elo over the last year
Lorenzo MusettiFrances Tiafoe
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| L. Musetti | F. Tiafoe | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 23–1266% | 28–1368% |
| Clay | 6–460% | 7–464% |
| Grass | 0–0 | 9–282% |
Head to head
L. Musetti 3–3 F. Tiafoe
- 21/08/26Winner: F. Tiafoe6:7 5:7
- 03/06/25Winner: L. Musetti6:2 4:6 7:5 6:2
- 14/08/24Winner: F. Tiafoe3:6 2:6
- 16/06/23Winner: F. Tiafoe7:6 6:7 2:6
- 15/05/23Winner: L. Musetti5:7 6:4 6:3
- 18/03/21Winner: L. Musetti2:6 6:3 7:6