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ATP Lyon250Finalhard, indoorbest of three sets

Musetti vs Fritz 2:0: result and our tips

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Lorenzo MusettiATP #26Elo 2103hard 2052
2:0final6:3 6:4
Taylor FritzATP #13Elo 2140hard 2099

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
1st Set Winner: FritzLost60%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Fritz: 9 matches in a row winning the first set; Musetti lost the first set in 6 of the last 20 matches, Fritz won the first set in 18 of the last 20 matches (tour average 50%)

Other tips

  • Total Games: Under 24.5Won59%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Under 24.5 games in recent matches: Musetti 15 of 20, Fritz 13 of 20 (tour average 62%)

  • Match Winner: FritzLost65%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 65%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Fritz: 3 wins in a row

Long shot
Tie-break in Match: NoWon50%

Where the number comes from: market alone 60% → with the players' profiles 50%

No tie-break in 4 of their 4 head-to-head matches; No tie-break in recent matches: Musetti 15 of 20, Fritz 14 of 20 (tour average 61%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Lorenzo Musetti35%
Taylor Fritz66%

Elo: L. Musetti 43% · T. Fritz 57%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 L. Musetti21%
2:1 L. Musetti15%
2:1 T. Fritz22%
2:0 T. Fritz42%

First set

Lorenzo Musetti39%
Taylor Fritz61%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes38%
no63%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 22.5 · 56%market (no margin): 51%

The 22.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 24.6

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
20.569%31%60%
21.561%39%54%
22.556%44%46%
23.547%53%40%
24.541%59%38%
25.539%61%35%
26.536%65%30%

Sample: 5,458 matches

Games handicap

T. Fritz −2.553%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes50%

tour average 39%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite lost
  • Most likely set scorewas 2:0
  • Total games Over 22.5out · 19 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Lorenzo MusettiTaylor Fritz
4Aces6
—Double faults—
68%First serves in65%
74%First-serve points won72%
70%Second-serve points won47%
2/4Break points converted0/0
10/10Service games held7/9
73%Service points won63%
37%Return points won27%
63Total points won48

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

L. MusettiTourT. Fritz
Service points won64%62%70%
Return points won38%38%35%
Service games held82%76%89%
Breaks of serve24%24%16%
Aces per service game0.371.01
Double faults per game0.210.14
Sets with a tie-break12%23%
Tie-breaks won6/1422/34
Wins in straight sets61%63%
Matches in the sample4556

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Lorenzo Musetti

Taylor Fritz

Elo over the last year

Lorenzo MusettiTaylor Fritz

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

L. MusettiT. Fritz
Hard court22–1363%27–1368%
Clay6–460%0–20%
Grass0–011–379%

Head to head

L. Musetti 3–2 T. Fritz

  • 26/01/26Winner: L. Musetti6:2 7:5 6:4
  • 10/11/25Winner: T. Fritz3:6 4:6
  • 10/07/24Winner: L. Musetti3:6 7:6 6:2 3:6 6:1
  • 07/04/24Winner: L. Musetti6:4 6:4
  • 28/06/22Winner: T. Fritz4:6 4:6 3:6

Road through the tournament

Lorenzo Musetti

Taylor Fritz

See also