Skip to content
ATP ParisMasters 1000Round of 64hard, indoorbest of three sets

Musetti vs Hurkacz 2:0: result and our tips

·

Lorenzo MusettiATP #24Elo 2110hard 2061
2:0final7:6(3) 7:6(10)
Hubert HurkaczATP #29Elo 2093hard 2049

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Over 22.5Won58%

Where the number comes from: market alone 52% → with the players' profiles 58%

Hurkacz: 4 matches in a row over 22.5 games

Long shot
Total Games: Over 27.5Lost33%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Hurkacz: 3 matches in a row over 27.5 games

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Lorenzo Musetti50%
Hubert Hurkacz50%

Elo: L. Musetti 52% · H. Hurkacz 48%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 L. Musetti30%
2:1 L. Musetti20%
2:1 H. Hurkacz20%
2:0 H. Hurkacz30%

First set

Lorenzo Musetti50%
Hubert Hurkacz50%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes40%
no60%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 24.5 · 55%market (no margin): 50%

The 24.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 24.9

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
20.572%28%60%
21.564%36%54%
22.558%42%46%
23.550%50%40%
24.545%55%38%
25.543%57%35%
26.538%62%30%

Sample: 5,292 matches

Games handicap

H. Hurkacz −0.549%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes51%

tour average 39%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite lost
  • Most likely set scorewas 2:0
  • Total games Under 24.5out · 26 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breaktie-break played

Match stats

Lorenzo MusettiHubert Hurkacz
5Aces9
—Double faults—
79%First serves in72%
80%First-serve points won92%
71%Second-serve points won55%
0/0Break points converted0/1
12/12Service games held12/12
78%Service points won82%
18%Return points won22%
76Total points won76

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

L. MusettiTourH. Hurkacz
Service points won64%62%68%
Return points won38%38%35%
Service games held83%76%87%
Breaks of serve24%24%18%
Aces per service game0.380.97
Double faults per game0.190.19
Sets with a tie-break13%27%
Tie-breaks won7/1520/40
Wins in straight sets63%50%
Matches in the sample4653

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Lorenzo Musetti

Hubert Hurkacz

Elo over the last year

Lorenzo MusettiHubert Hurkacz

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

L. MusettiH. Hurkacz
Hard court24–1267%20–1459%
Clay6–460%8–562%
Grass0–04–357%

Head to head

L. Musetti 3–2 H. Hurkacz

  • 24/04/26Winner: L. Musetti6:4 7:6
  • 07/07/23Winner: H. Hurkacz6:7 4:6 4:6
  • 09/02/22Winner: L. Musetti6:3 5:7 6:3
  • 29/06/21Winner: H. Hurkacz4:6 6:7 1:6
  • 10/05/21Winner: L. Musetti6:4 2:0

Upcoming matches

See also