ATP ParisMasters 1000Round of 16hard, indoorbest of three sets
Musetti vs Van Assche: prediction and tips
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Our tips
Tip in 10h 44mFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon on match day, for earlier ones 3 hours before the order-of-play time.
Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength.
Winner
Lorenzo Musetti73%
Luca Van Assche27%
Elo: L. Musetti 71% · L. Van Assche 29%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
2:0 L. Musetti50%
2:1 L. Musetti22%
2:1 L. Van Assche13%
2:0 L. Van Assche15%
First set
Lorenzo Musetti68%
Luca Van Assche32%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes35%
no65%
Total games
The bookmakers' lineUnder 22.5 · 54%market (no margin): 51%
The 22.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).
Expected total: 23.5
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19.5 | 68% | 32% | 68% |
| 20.5 | 60% | 40% | 60% |
| 21.5 | 54% | 46% | 54% |
| 22.5 | 46% | 54% | 46% |
| 23.5 | 40% | 60% | 40% |
| 24.5 | 38% | 62% | 38% |
| 25.5 | 35% | 65% | 35% |
Sample: 4,222 matches
Games handicap
L. Musetti −3.552%
Tie-break in the match
Tie-break: yes40%
tour average 39%
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| L. Musetti | Tour | L. Van Assche | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 65% | 62% | 62% |
| Return points won | 38% | 38% | 41% |
| Service games held | 83% | 76% | 77% |
| Breaks of serve | 24% | 24% | 30% |
| Aces per service game | 0.39 | 0.34 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.19 | 0.31 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 15% | 13% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 10/18 | 11/23 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 66% | 60% | |
| Matches in the sample | 48 | 74 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Lorenzo Musetti
- 04/11/26WAlexander Zverev#1ATP Paris · R327:6 6:2
- 02/11/26WHubert Hurkacz#29ATP Paris · R647:6 7:6
- 29/10/26LArthur Fery#32ATP Vienna · R164:6 7:5 4:6
- 28/10/26WFrances Tiafoe#8ATP Vienna · R327:6 7:5
- 25/10/26WTaylor Fritz#12ATP Lyon · F6:3 6:4
- 24/10/26WFlavio Cobolli#6ATP Lyon · SF4:6 6:2 7:5
- 23/10/26WLuca Van Assche#47ATP Lyon · QF7:6 6:7 6:4
- 21/10/26WMoise Kouame#132ATP Lyon · R166:4 6:4
- 19/10/26WMatteo Arnaldi#36ATP Lyon · R326:1 6:4
- 09/10/26LYi Zhou#281ATP Shanghai · R646:7 6:3 6:7
Luca Van Assche
- 04/11/26WLearner Tien#19ATP Paris · R327:6 6:4
- 02/11/26WMariano Navone#48ATP Paris · R646:3 7:5
- 26/10/26LLearner Tien#19ATP Vienna · R323:6 1:6
- 23/10/26LLorenzo Musetti#24ATP Lyon · QF6:7 7:6 4:6
- 22/10/26WValentin Vacherot#27ATP Lyon · R162:6 6:4 6:4
- 20/10/26WClement Tabur#156ATP Lyon · R327:6 6:3
- 08/10/26LYunchaokete Bu#93ATP Shanghai · R1286:7 3:6
- 30/09/26LArthur Fils#7ATP Tokyo · R323:6 2:6
- 02/09/26LDenis Shapovalov#51ATP US Open · R640:6 4:6 6:7
- 30/08/26WCameron Norrie#45ATP US Open · R1286:7 6:2 6:2 6:3
Elo over the last year
Lorenzo MusettiLuca Van Assche
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| L. Musetti | L. Van Assche | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 26–1268% | 30–1567% |
| Clay | 6–460% | 18–1064% |
| Grass | 0–0 | 0–10% |
Head to head
L. Musetti 1–1 L. Van Assche
- 23/10/26Winner: L. Musetti7:6 6:7 6:4
- 17/01/24Winner: L. Van Assche3:6 6:3 7:6 3:6 0:6
Road through the tournament
Lorenzo Musetti
- 02/11/26WHubert Hurkacz#29ATP Paris · R647:6 7:6
- 04/11/26WAlexander Zverev#1ATP Paris · R327:6 6:2
Luca Van Assche
- 02/11/26WMariano Navone#48ATP Paris · R646:3 7:5
- 04/11/26WLearner Tien#19ATP Paris · R327:6 6:4
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