Challenger JinanChallenger 175Round of 16hardbest of three sets
Ivashka vs Draxl: prediction and tips
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Our tips
Tip in 4h 9mFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon on match day, for earlier ones 3 hours before the order-of-play time.
Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength.
Winner
Ilya Ivashka47%
Liam Draxl53%
Elo: I. Ivashka 51% · L. Draxl 49%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
2:0 I. Ivashka28%
2:1 I. Ivashka18%
2:1 L. Draxl20%
2:0 L. Draxl34%
First set
Ilya Ivashka47%
Liam Draxl53%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes38%
no62%
Total games
The bookmakers' lineUnder 22.5 · 54%market (no margin): 50%
The 22.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).
Expected total: 23.4
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19.5 | 68% | 32% | 62% |
| 20.5 | 59% | 41% | 54% |
| 21.5 | 54% | 46% | 49% |
| 22.5 | 47% | 53% | 42% |
| 23.5 | 42% | 59% | 37% |
| 24.5 | 40% | 60% | 35% |
| 25.5 | 36% | 64% | 32% |
Sample: 5,279 matches
Games handicap
Liam Draxl −1.549%
Tie-break in the match
Tie-break: yes35%
tour average 32%
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| I. Ivashka | Tour | L. Draxl | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 66% | 62% | 62% |
| Return points won | 41% | 38% | 39% |
| Service games held | 82% | 76% | 74% |
| Breaks of serve | 29% | 24% | 28% |
| Aces per service game | 0.40 | 0.40 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.25 | 0.24 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 17% | 17% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 9/17 | 12/25 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 56% | 51% | |
| Matches in the sample | 44 | 61 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Ilya Ivashka
- 14/10/26WMarat Sharipov#234Challenger Jinan · R323:4
- 12/10/26WKaichi Uchida#386Challenger Jinan · Q26:2 6:4
- 11/10/26WBeibit Zhukayev#503Challenger Jinan · Q16:0 6:4
- 13/09/26WMarat Sharipov#234Challenger Shanghai · F6:4 3:6 7:6
- 12/09/26WLuca Castelnuovo#455Challenger Shanghai · SF6:3 6:4
- 11/09/26WYi Zhou#277Challenger Shanghai · QF6:3 6:3
- 10/09/26WBernard Tomic#185Challenger Shanghai · R166:4 4:6 6:2
- 08/09/26WYu Hsiou Hsu#297Challenger Shanghai · R326:3 6:3
- 04/09/26LIlia Simakin#154Challenger Zhangjiagang · QF6:7 4:6
- 03/09/26WAkira Santillan#324Challenger Zhangjiagang · R166:4 4:6 6:1
Liam Draxl
- 14/10/26WJames Duckworth#64Challenger Jinan · R326:4 6:4
- 13/10/26WOmar Jasika#422Challenger Jinan · Q25:7 7:6 6:4
- 11/10/26WYutong DuChallenger Jinan · Q16:1 6:0
- 06/10/26LNikoloz Basilashvili#124ATP Shanghai · Q27:5 5:7 4:6
- 05/10/26WHugo Gaston#89ATP Shanghai · Q17:5 6:4
- 23/09/26LHenry Searle#228Challenger San Diego 2 · R166:7 6:2 4:6
- 22/09/26WJack Kennedy#401Challenger San Diego 2 · R326:4 6:4
- 28/08/26LTristan Schoolkate#155ATP US Open · Q36:4 5:7 6:7
- 26/08/26WAndrew Johnson#729ATP US Open · Q26:4 6:2
- 25/08/26WNicolas Mejia#119ATP US Open · Q16:4 6:7 6:4
Elo over the last year
Ilya IvashkaLiam Draxl
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| I. Ivashka | L. Draxl | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 30–1075% | 28–1960% |
| Clay | 2–250% | 7–654% |
| Grass | 0–0 | 0–10% |
Head to head
They have not met yet.
Road through the tournament
Ilya Ivashka
- 11/10/26WBeibit Zhukayev#503Challenger Jinan · Q16:0 6:4
- 12/10/26WKaichi Uchida#386Challenger Jinan · Q26:2 6:4
- 14/10/26WMarat Sharipov#234Challenger Jinan · R323:4
Liam Draxl
- 11/10/26WYutong DuChallenger Jinan · Q16:1 6:0
- 13/10/26WOmar Jasika#422Challenger Jinan · Q25:7 7:6 6:4
- 14/10/26WJames Duckworth#64Challenger Jinan · R326:4 6:4