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WTA OsakaWTA 250Semifinalhardbest of three sets

Li vs Krueger 1:2: result and our tips

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Ann LiWTA #31Elo 1922hard 1900
1:2final4:6 7:6(4) 3:6
Ashlyn KruegerWTA #44Elo 1892hard 1852

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Under 23.5Lost61%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Krueger: 14 matches in a row under 23.5 games; Under 23.5 games in recent matches: Li 15 of 20, Krueger 18 of 20 (tour average 66%)

Other tips

  • Total Sets: Under 2.5Lost62%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    No third set in recent matches: Li 15 of 20, Krueger 17 of 20 (tour average 66%)

Long shot
Total Games: Under 20.5Lost45%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Under 20.5 games in recent matches: Li 12 of 20, Krueger 16 of 20 (tour average 51%); Krueger: 4 matches in a row under 20.5 games

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Ann Li59%
Ashlyn Krueger41%

Elo: A. Li 57% · A. Krueger 43%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 A. Li36%
2:1 A. Li21%
2:1 A. Krueger17%
2:0 A. Krueger26%

First set

Ann Li55%
Ashlyn Krueger45%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes38%
no62%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 22.0 · 51%market (no margin): 48%

The 22.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 22.6

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
18.569%31%64%
19.561%39%56%
20.555%45%49%
21.549%51%44%
22.543%57%38%
23.539%61%34%
24.537%63%32%

Sample: 2,452 matches

Games handicap

A. Li −1.552%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes25%

tour average 22%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite lost
  • Most likely set scorewas 1:2
  • Total games Under 22.0out · 32 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breaktie-break played

Match stats

Ann LiAshlyn Krueger
7Aces6
0Double faults2
77%First serves in82%
63%First-serve points won66%
50%Second-serve points won58%
2/8Break points converted5/7
11/16Service games held13/15
60%Service points won64%
36%Return points won40%
104Total points won112

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

A. LiTourA. Krueger
Service points won59%56%59%
Return points won42%44%44%
Service games held71%63%70%
Breaks of serve31%37%35%
Aces per service game0.440.42
Double faults per game0.260.41
Sets with a tie-break13%10%
Tie-breaks won11/197/13
Wins in straight sets50%67%
Matches in the sample6058

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Ann Li

Ashlyn Krueger

Elo over the last year

Ann LiAshlyn Krueger

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

A. LiA. Krueger
Hard court23–1758%15–1550%
Clay9–660%5–550%
Grass2–340%16–289%

Head to head

A. Li 1–0 A. Krueger

  • 03/10/26Winner: A. Li6:4 6:2

Road through the tournament

Ann Li

Ashlyn Krueger

See also