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Challenger CharlottesvilleChallenger 75Round of 32hard, indoorbest of three sets

Mejia vs Cassone 1:2: result and our tips

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Nicolas MejiaATP #115Elo 1784hard 1715
1:2final6:7(5) 6:4 5:7
Murphy CassoneATP #283Elo 1737hard 1730

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Over 21.5Won57%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Cassone: 4 matches in a row over 21.5 games; Over 21.5 games in recent matches: Mejia 11 of 20, Cassone 13 of 20 (tour average 49%)

Long shot
Total Games: Over 24.5Won41%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Over 24.5 games in recent matches: Mejia 9 of 20, Cassone 10 of 20 (tour average 35%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Nicolas Mejia40%
Murphy Cassone61%

Elo: N. Mejia 48% · M. Cassone 52%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 N. Mejia23%
2:1 N. Mejia16%
2:1 M. Cassone21%
2:0 M. Cassone39%

First set

Nicolas Mejia42%
Murphy Cassone58%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes38%
no62%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 22.5 · 51%market (no margin): 50%

The 22.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 23.7

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
19.570%30%62%
20.562%38%54%
21.556%44%49%
22.549%51%42%
23.543%57%37%
24.540%60%35%
25.537%63%32%

Sample: 6,022 matches

Games handicap

M. Cassone −2.550%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes39%

tour average 32%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorewas 1:2
  • Total games Under 22.5out · 35 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breaktie-break played

Match stats

Nicolas MejiaMurphy Cassone
8Aces11
2Double faults3
62%First serves in60%
71%First-serve points won71%
49%Second-serve points won48%
5/6Break points converted5/10
12/17Service games held12/17
62%Service points won62%
38%Return points won38%
106Total points won102

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

N. MejiaTourM. Cassone
Service points won63%62%64%
Return points won38%38%37%
Service games held78%76%81%
Breaks of serve25%24%23%
Aces per service game0.440.54
Double faults per game0.200.23
Sets with a tie-break20%21%
Tie-breaks won16/3212/25
Wins in straight sets53%68%
Matches in the sample6752

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Nicolas Mejia

Murphy Cassone

Elo over the last year

Nicolas MejiaMurphy Cassone

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

N. MejiaM. Cassone
Hard court18–2047%27–2156%
Clay17–577%0–0
Grass5–271%1–325%

Head to head

N. Mejia 1–1 M. Cassone

  • 06/11/25Winner: M. Cassone3:6 7:5 3:6
  • 14/07/25Winner: N. Mejia6:3 7:5

See also