Challenger LisbonChallenger 125Quarterfinalclaybest of three setsqualifying
Moller vs Rocha: prediction and tips
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Our tips
Tip in 1d 5hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon on match day, for earlier ones 3 hours before the order-of-play time.
Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength.
Winner
Elmer Moller40%
Henrique Rocha60%
Elo: E. Moller 44% · H. Rocha 56%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
2:0 E. Moller22%
2:1 E. Moller17%
2:1 H. Rocha22%
2:0 H. Rocha39%
First set
Elmer Moller42%
Henrique Rocha59%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes39%
no61%
Total games
The bookmakers' lineUnder 21.5 · 53%market (no margin): 49%
The 21.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).
Expected total: 22.2
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18.5 | 67% | 33% | 68% |
| 19.5 | 59% | 41% | 59% |
| 20.5 | 54% | 46% | 52% |
| 21.5 | 47% | 53% | 46% |
| 22.5 | 42% | 58% | 40% |
| 23.5 | 39% | 61% | 36% |
| 24.5 | 36% | 64% | 34% |
Sample: 4,912 matches
Games handicap
Henrique Rocha −2.551%
Tie-break in the match
Tie-break: yes22%
tour average 27%
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| E. Moller | Tour | H. Rocha | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 57% | 62% | 63% |
| Return points won | 43% | 38% | 40% |
| Service games held | 66% | 76% | 78% |
| Breaks of serve | 33% | 24% | 28% |
| Aces per service game | 0.19 | 0.27 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.45 | 0.27 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 11% | 16% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 10/14 | 14/25 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 67% | 71% | |
| Matches in the sample | 55 | 67 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Elmer Moller
- 21/10/26WMax Alcala Gurri#132Challenger Lisbon · R166:4 2:6 6:3
- 19/10/26WTristan Boyer#200Challenger Lisbon · R327:5 6:2
- 14/10/26LLukas Neumayer#168Challenger Maia · R324:6 6:4 2:6
- 11/10/26LMatej Dodig#138Challenger Braga · F6:3 3:6 2:6
- 10/10/26WVilius Gaubas#142Challenger Braga · SF6:2 4:6 6:4
- 09/10/26WTiago Pereira#316Challenger Braga · QF5:7 6:2 6:1
- 08/10/26WZsombor Piros#103Challenger Braga · R161:6 6:1 7:5
- 05/10/26WThiago Monteiro#236Challenger Braga · R327:6 5:7 6:4
- 29/09/26LCarlos Taberner#447Challenger Bari · R323:6 4:6
- 02/09/26LMaks Kaśnikowski#214Challenger Manacor · R322:6 6:4 4:6
Henrique Rocha
- 21/10/26WThiago Monteiro#236Challenger Lisbon · R166:4 3:6 6:3
- 19/10/26WDali Blanch#320Challenger Lisbon · R326:4 7:5
- 12/10/26LSumit Nagal#281Challenger Maia · R326:3 5:7 6:7
- 04/10/26WInaki Montes-de la Torre#185Challenger Porto 2 · F2:6 6:4 6:4
- 02/10/26WAugust Holmgren#258Challenger Porto 2 · QF6:3 7:6
- 01/10/26WMili Poljicak#270Challenger Porto 2 · R166:2 6:0
- 29/09/26WCezar Cretu#275Challenger Porto 2 · R327:5 6:3
- 11/09/26LDusan Lajovic#162Challenger Seville · QF4:6 4:6
- 10/09/26WSantiago Rodriguez Taverna#443Challenger Seville · R166:4 6:1
- 08/09/26WCarlos Taberner#447Challenger Seville · R326:3 7:6
Elo over the last year
Elmer MollerHenrique Rocha
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| E. Moller | H. Rocha | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 2–625% | 13–959% |
| Clay | 28–1960% | 27–1466% |
| Grass | 0–0 | 1–325% |
Head to head
E. Moller 2–0 H. Rocha
- 01/10/25Winner: Elmer Moller6:7 6:3 6:1
- 09/11/24Winner: Elmer Moller7:5 6:1
Road through the tournament
Elmer Moller
- 19/10/26WTristan Boyer#200Challenger Lisbon · R327:5 6:2
- 21/10/26WMax Alcala Gurri#132Challenger Lisbon · R166:4 2:6 6:3
Henrique Rocha
- 19/10/26WDali Blanch#320Challenger Lisbon · R326:4 7:5
- 21/10/26WThiago Monteiro#236Challenger Lisbon · R166:4 3:6 6:3