Moriya vs Alkaya 1:2: result and our tips
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Our tips
Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.
Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data
Alkaya: 5 matches in a row over 20.5 games
Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.
Winner
Elo: H. Moriya 44% · M. Alkaya 56%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
First set
Total games
The 22.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).
Expected total: 23.0
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18.5 | 73% | 27% | 71% |
| 19.5 | 65% | 35% | 62% |
| 20.5 | 57% | 43% | 54% |
| 21.5 | 52% | 48% | 49% |
| 22.5 | 45% | 55% | 42% |
| 23.5 | 40% | 60% | 37% |
| 24.5 | 38% | 62% | 35% |
Sample: 5,423 matches
Games handicap
Tie-break in the match
tour average 32%
How the forecast did
- Favouritefavourite won
- Most likely set scorewas 1:2
- Total games Under 22.0out · 28 games
- Games handicapnot covered
- Tie-breakno tie-break
Match stats
| Hiroki Moriya | Mert Alkaya | |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aces | 12 |
| 1 | Double faults | 2 |
| 62% | First serves in | 64% |
| 63% | First-serve points won | 74% |
| 57% | Second-serve points won | 50% |
| 2/4 | Break points converted | 3/4 |
| 11/14 | Service games held | 12/14 |
| 60% | Service points won | 65% |
| 35% | Return points won | 40% |
| 89 | Total points won | 96 |
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| H. Moriya | Tour | M. Alkaya | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 61% | 62% | 62% |
| Return points won | 39% | 38% | 38% |
| Service games held | 74% | 76% | 78% |
| Breaks of serve | 27% | 24% | 26% |
| Aces per service game | 0.23 | 0.56 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.29 | 0.23 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 20% | 14% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 10/26 | 4/13 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 57% | 62% | |
| Matches in the sample | 56 | 41 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Hiroki Moriya
- 27/10/26WJames McCabe#255Challenger Ningbo · R326:1 2:6 7:6
- 26/10/26WTimofei Derepasko#615Challenger Ningbo · Q17:6 6:2
- 25/10/26WTaisei Ichikawa#751Challenger Ningbo · Q16:4 6:4
- 18/10/26LOmar Jasika#386Challenger Guangzhou Nansha · Q12:6 3:6
- 07/10/26LKeisuke Saitoh#481Challenger Wuning 3 · R162:6 3:6
- 06/10/26WKeegan Smith#185Challenger Wuning 3 · R323:6 7:6 6:3
- 29/09/26LOmar Jasika#386Challenger Jingshan · Q24:6 4:6
- 28/09/26WJilong HuangChallenger Jingshan · Q16:0 6:4
- 15/09/26LBlake Ellis#451Challenger Phan Thiet 4 · R324:6 7:5 3:6
- 11/09/26LYuta Shimizu#404Challenger Phan Thiet 3 · QF7:5 5:7 6:7
Mert Alkaya
- 26/10/26WRigele TE#739Challenger Ningbo · R327:6 6:4
- 19/10/26LAndre Ilagan#199Challenger Guangzhou Nansha · R324:6 6:3 1:6
- 10/09/26LMax Basing#258Challenger Istanbul 3 · R164:6 5:7
- 08/09/26WTiago Torres#378Challenger Istanbul 3 · R326:3 4:6 6:2
- 14/08/26LKhumoyun Sultanov#416Challenger Astana · QF6:7 3:6
- 12/08/26WBeibit Zhukayev#528Challenger Astana · R166:3 6:4
- 11/08/26WSidharth Rawat#656Challenger Astana · R326:2 6:4
- 06/08/26LKenta (2004) Miyoshi#422Challenger Istanbul 2 · R163:6 2:6
- 04/08/26WSaba Purtseladze#571Challenger Istanbul 2 · R327:6 6:4
- 28/07/26LColin Sinclair#483Challenger Samsun · R326:0 5:7 4:6
Elo over the last year
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| H. Moriya | M. Alkaya | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 26–2749% | 19–1753% |
| Clay | 1–150% | 1–233% |
| Grass | 1–150% | 1–150% |
Head to head
They have not met yet.
Road through the tournament
Hiroki Moriya
- 25/10/26WTaisei Ichikawa#751Challenger Ningbo · Q16:4 6:4
- 26/10/26WTimofei Derepasko#615Challenger Ningbo · Q17:6 6:2
- 27/10/26WJames McCabe#255Challenger Ningbo · R326:1 2:6 7:6