Challenger LisbonChallenger 125Round of 32claybest of three sets

Nagal vs Sanchez Quilez 2:0: result and our tips

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Sumit NagalATP #281Elo 1721clay 1727
2:0final6:4 6:2
Alejo Sanchez QuilezATP #323Elo 1728clay 1732

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Under 23.5Won61%

Where the number comes from: market alone 59% → with the players' profiles 61%

Under 23.5 games in recent matches: Nagal 15 of 20, Sanchez Quilez 15 of 20 (tour average 64%)

Other tips

  • Total Sets: Under 2.5Won61%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    No third set in recent matches: Nagal 15 of 20, Sanchez Quilez 15 of 20 (tour average 66%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Sumit Nagal47%
Alejo Sanchez Quilez53%

Elo: S. Nagal 49% · A. Sanchez Quilez 51%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 S. Nagal28%
2:1 S. Nagal19%
2:1 A. Sanchez Quilez20%
2:0 A. Sanchez Quilez33%

First set

Sumit Nagal47%
Alejo Sanchez Quilez53%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes39%
no61%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 22.0 · 53%market (no margin): 52%

The 22.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 22.3

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
17.577%23%76%
18.568%32%68%
19.560%40%59%
20.553%47%52%
21.547%53%46%
22.542%58%40%
23.539%61%36%

Sample: 4,453 matches

Games handicap

Alejo Sanchez Quilez −1.548%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes23%

tour average 27%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite lost
  • Most likely set scorewas 2:0
  • Total games Under 22.0in · 18 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Sumit NagalAlejo Sanchez Quilez
1Aces2
1Double faults1
85%First serves in61%
85%First-serve points won70%
57%Second-serve points won24%
3/7Break points converted0/0
9/9Service games held6/9
80%Service points won52%
48%Return points won20%
63Total points won37

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

S. NagalTourA. Sanchez Quilez
Service points won60%62%60%
Return points won40%38%42%
Service games held73%76%70%
Breaks of serve27%24%32%
Aces per service game0.170.20
Double faults per game0.230.15
Sets with a tie-break12%10%
Tie-breaks won5/135/12
Wins in straight sets61%68%
Matches in the sample4755

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Sumit Nagal

Alejo Sanchez Quilez

Elo over the last year

Sumit NagalAlejo Sanchez Quilez

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

S. NagalA. Sanchez Quilez
Hard court5–645%9–853%
Clay18–1850%22–1658%

Head to head

They have not met yet.

Road through the tournament

Sumit Nagal

First match in this tournament.

Alejo Sanchez Quilez