Challenger SydneyChallenger 75Qualifying round 2hardbest of three setsqualifying
O'Connell vs Ferguson: prediction and tips
·
-:-awaiting result
Our tips
No tip for this match: when the tips were published, no bet on offer had clear support in our data. We never force a tip.
Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.
Winner
Benjamin O'Connell30%
Chase Ferguson70%
Elo: B. O'Connell 45% · C. Ferguson 55%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
2:0 B. O'Connell17%
2:1 B. O'Connell14%
2:1 C. Ferguson22%
2:0 C. Ferguson47%
First set
Benjamin O'Connell36%
Chase Ferguson65%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes36%
no64%
Total games
Expected total: 22.8
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18.5 | 72% | 29% | 71% |
| 19.5 | 63% | 37% | 62% |
| 20.5 | 56% | 44% | 54% |
| 21.5 | 50% | 50% | 49% |
| 22.5 | 44% | 56% | 42% |
| 23.5 | 39% | 61% | 37% |
| 24.5 | 36% | 64% | 35% |
Sample: 4,988 matches
Games handicap
C. Ferguson −3.551%
Tie-break in the match
Tie-break: yes31%
tour average 32%
Bookmakers offer no tie-break bet on this match.
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| B. O'Connell | Tour | C. Ferguson | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 57% | 62% | 62% |
| Return points won | 38% | 38% | 37% |
| Service games held | 69% | 76% | 76% |
| Breaks of serve | 25% | 24% | 19% |
| Aces per service game | 0.43 | 0.29 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.41 | 0.16 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 13% | 11% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 0/2 | 1/2 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 0% | 75% | |
| Matches in the sample | 6 | 9 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Benjamin O'Connell
- 08/11/26LChase Ferguson#683Challenger Brisbane 3 · Q16:4 2:6 2:6
- 15/09/26LConstantin Bittoun Kouzmine#492Challenger Phan Thiet 4 · R322:6 4:6
- 08/09/26LBlake Ellis#393Challenger Phan Thiet 3 · R326:7 3:6
- 07/09/26WTaisei Ichikawa#759Challenger Phan Thiet 3 · Q26:7 7:5 6:2
- 06/09/26WS D Prajwal Dev#693Challenger Phan Thiet 3 · Q14:6 7:5 6:2
- 31/05/26LFilippo Romano#251Challenger Birmingham · Q11:6 2:6
Chase Ferguson
- 09/11/26LSam Ryan Ziegann#786Challenger Brisbane 3 · Q26:7 4:6
- 08/11/26WBenjamin O'Connell#950Challenger Brisbane 3 · Q14:6 6:2 6:2
- 28/09/26LOmar Jasika#301Challenger Jingshan · Q13:6 1:6
- 08/02/26LJamie Mackenzie#632Challenger Brisbane 2 · Q13:6 4:6
- 02/02/26LKokoro Isomura#724Challenger Brisbane · Q23:6 3:6
- 01/02/26WEnzo Aguiard#423Challenger Brisbane · Q16:4 6:4
- 27/01/26LDarwin Blanch#149Challenger Phan Thiet 2 · R320:6 1:6
- 26/01/26WLorenzo Carboni#550Challenger Phan Thiet 2 · Q27:6 6:4
- 25/01/26WArthur Weber#433Challenger Phan Thiet 2 · Q16:4 6:4
Elo over the last year
Benjamin O'ConnellChase Ferguson
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| B. O'Connell | C. Ferguson | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 2–340% | 4–544% |
| Grass | 0–10% | 0–0 |
Head to head
B. O'Connell 0–1 C. Ferguson
- 08/11/26Winner: C. Ferguson6:4 2:6 2:6
Upcoming matches
- Ymerali Ibraimi vs Thomas Fancutt, · Challenger Sydney
- Isaac Becroft vs Shinji Hazawa, · Challenger Sydney
- Hayden Jones vs Naoki Nakagawa, · Challenger Sydney
- Tai Leonard Sach vs Derek Pham, · Challenger Sydney
- Alexander Zverev vs Arthur Fils, · ATP Tour Finals Turin
- Alexander Zverev vs Ben Shelton, · ATP Tour Finals Turin