Challenger LisbonChallenger 125Round of 16claybest of three sets
Pellegrino vs Passaro: prediction and tips
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Our tips
Tip in 10h 37mFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon on match day, for earlier ones 3 hours before the order-of-play time.
Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength.
Winner
Andrea Pellegrino30%
Francesco Passaro71%
Elo: A. Pellegrino 36% · F. Passaro 64%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
2:0 A. Pellegrino16%
2:1 A. Pellegrino14%
2:1 F. Passaro23%
2:0 F. Passaro47%
First set
Andrea Pellegrino35%
Francesco Passaro65%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes37%
no63%
Total games
The bookmakers' lineOver 21.5 · 52%market (no margin): 50%
The 21.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).
Expected total: 23.1
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18.5 | 75% | 25% | 68% |
| 19.5 | 66% | 34% | 59% |
| 20.5 | 58% | 42% | 52% |
| 21.5 | 52% | 48% | 47% |
| 22.5 | 46% | 54% | 40% |
| 23.5 | 40% | 60% | 36% |
| 24.5 | 37% | 63% | 34% |
Sample: 3,871 matches
Games handicap
Francesco Passaro −3.554%
Tie-break in the match
Tie-break: yes33%
tour average 27%
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| A. Pellegrino | Tour | F. Passaro | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 62% | 62% | 66% |
| Return points won | 38% | 38% | 38% |
| Service games held | 76% | 76% | 81% |
| Breaks of serve | 25% | 24% | 22% |
| Aces per service game | 0.31 | 0.45 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.22 | 0.22 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 10% | 19% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 9/14 | 19/25 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 48% | 65% | |
| Matches in the sample | 57 | 56 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Andrea Pellegrino
- 20/10/26WPol Martin Tiffon#211Challenger Lisbon · R321:3
- 13/10/26LLorenzo Giustino#231Challenger Maia · R324:6 6:2 1:6
- 07/10/26LMatej Dodig#138Challenger Braga · R323:6 6:3 1:6
- 09/09/26LValerio Aboian#340Challenger Genoa · R163:6 2:6
- 08/09/26WMika Petkovic#424Challenger Genoa · R327:6 6:4
- 25/08/26LColton Smith#218ATP US Open · Q16:4 3:6 4:6
- 20/08/26LZizou Bergs#41Challenger Quebec City · R163:6 2:6
- 18/08/26WNishesh Basavareddy#134Challenger Quebec City · R323:6 6:3 6:4
- 30/07/26LThiago Monteiro#236Challenger San Marino · R163:6 2:6
- 28/07/26WCarlo Alberto Caniato#314Challenger San Marino · R326:4 6:0
Francesco Passaro
- 20/10/26WGastao EliasChallenger Lisbon · R326:2 6:2
- 18/10/26WZsombor Piros#103Challenger Maia · F4:6 6:3 6:2
- 17/10/26WMatej Dodig#138Challenger Maia · SF5:7 6:1 6:4
- 16/10/26WMarco Trungelliti#90Challenger Maia · QF2:6 7:5 7:6
- 15/10/26WNikolas Sanchez Izquierdo#154Challenger Maia · R167:6 7:6
- 14/10/26WTiago Torres#377Challenger Maia · R326:3 6:0
- 11/10/26WJonas Forejtek#299Challenger Palermo · F6:3 6:7 7:6
- 10/10/26WYanaki Milev#535Challenger Palermo · SF6:2 6:1
- 09/10/26WEnrico Dalla Valle#303Challenger Palermo · QF6:3 6:4
- 08/10/26WCarlo Alberto Caniato#314Challenger Palermo · R164:6 6:3 6:4
Elo over the last year
Andrea PellegrinoFrancesco Passaro
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| A. Pellegrino | F. Passaro | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 1–517% | 12–860% |
| Clay | 29–2059% | 22–1461% |
| Grass | 1–150% | 0–0 |
Head to head
A. Pellegrino 2–1 F. Passaro
- 13/06/25Winner: Andrea Pellegrino6:4 7:6
- 14/04/24Winner: Francesco Passaro3:6 4:6
- 14/06/23Winner: Andrea Pellegrino7:6 6:3
Road through the tournament
Andrea Pellegrino
- 20/10/26WPol Martin Tiffon#211Challenger Lisbon · R321:3
Francesco Passaro
- 20/10/26WGastao EliasChallenger Lisbon · R326:2 6:2