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WTA 125 CuritibaQuarterfinalclaybest of three setsqualifying

Riera vs Sierra 2:1: result and our tips

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Julia RieraWTA #137Elo 1645clay 1667
2:1final1:6 6:4 7:5
Solana SierraWTA #104Elo 1734clay 1795

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Under 24.5Lost64%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Riera: 7 matches in a row under 24.5 games

Long shot
Total Sets: Over 2.5Won39%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

A third set in recent matches: Riera 11 of 20, Sierra 9 of 20 (tour average 33%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Julia Riera48%
Solana Sierra52%

Elo: J. Riera 32% · S. Sierra 68%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 J. Riera30%
2:1 J. Riera19%
2:1 S. Sierra20%
2:0 S. Sierra32%

First set

Julia Riera50%
Solana Sierra50%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes39%
no61%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 21.5 · 51%market (no margin): 50%

The 21.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 22.3

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
18.566%34%59%
19.558%42%52%
20.552%48%45%
21.549%51%41%
22.543%57%37%
23.539%61%33%
24.536%64%31%

Sample: 1,388 matches

Games handicap

S. Sierra −0.551%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes23%

tour average 20%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite lost
  • Most likely set scorewas 2:1
  • Total games Under 21.5out · 29 games
  • Games handicapcovered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Julia RieraSolana Sierra
2Aces0
3Double faults3
59%First serves in73%
60%First-serve points won59%
45%Second-serve points won42%
5/12Break points converted6/11
9/15Service games held9/14
54%Service points won54%
46%Return points won46%
96Total points won96

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

J. RieraTourS. Sierra
Service points won55%56%55%
Return points won46%44%44%
Service games held59%63%61%
Breaks of serve40%37%36%
Aces per service game0.170.20
Double faults per game0.400.48
Sets with a tie-break12%6%
Tie-breaks won5/105/7
Wins in straight sets31%63%
Matches in the sample3348

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Julia Riera

Solana Sierra

Elo over the last year

Julia RieraSolana Sierra

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

J. RieraS. Sierra
Hard court4–640%7–1532%
Clay11–1052%13–668%
Grass1–150%4–357%

Head to head

They have not met yet.

Road through the tournament

Julia Riera

Solana Sierra

See also