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Challenger TarantoChallenger 50Qualifying round 1hardbest of three setsqualifying

Sciahbasi vs Nordquist 2:1: result and our tips

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Matteo SciahbasiATP #873Elo 1396hard 1448
2:1final3:6 6:4 7:6(9)
Arvid NordquistATP #657Elo 1379hard 1398

Our tips

No tip for this match: when the tips were published, no bet on offer had clear support in our data. We never force a tip.

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Matteo Sciahbasi44%
Arvid Nordquist56%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 M. Sciahbasi26%
2:1 M. Sciahbasi17%
2:1 A. Nordquist21%
2:0 A. Nordquist36%

First set

Matteo Sciahbasi45%
Arvid Nordquist55%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes38%
no62%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 21.5 · 55%market (no margin): 47%

The 21.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 23.4

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
19.568%32%62%
20.560%40%54%
21.555%45%49%
22.547%53%42%
23.541%59%37%
24.540%60%35%
25.536%64%32%

Sample: 5,827 matches

Games handicap

A. Nordquist −1.552%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes35%

tour average 32%

Bookmakers offer no tie-break bet on this match.

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite lost
  • Most likely set scorewas 2:1
  • Total games Over 21.5in · 32 games
  • Games handicapnot covered

Match stats

Matteo SciahbasiArvid Nordquist
8Aces3
7Double faults3
63%First serves in76%
69%First-serve points won68%
44%Second-serve points won41%
3/6Break points converted4/8
12/16Service games held12/15
60%Service points won61%
39%Return points won40%
105Total points won109

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

M. SciahbasiTourA. Nordquist
Service points won56%62%—
Return points won38%38%—
Service games held63%76%—
Breaks of serve23%24%—
Aces per service game0.26—
Double faults per game0.23—
Sets with a tie-break0%—
Tie-breaks won0/0—
Wins in straight sets——
Matches in the sample3—

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Matteo Sciahbasi

  • 18/10/26LDaniel Siniakov#500Challenger Florence · Q11:6 0:3
  • 28/09/26LJuan Cruz Martin Manzano#383Challenger Bari · R325:7 3:6
  • 05/07/26LGiovanni Oradini#674Challenger Trieste · Q13:6 3:6

Arvid Nordquist

  • 23/08/26LGiulio Perego#827Challenger Roehampton 2 · Q16:7 6:4 4:6
  • 17/03/25LNicolas Kicker#340Challenger Asuncion · Q13:6 2:6

Elo over the last year

Matteo SciahbasiArvid Nordquist

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

M. SciahbasiA. Nordquist
Hard court0–00–10%
Clay0–30%0–0

Head to head

They have not met yet.

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