Challenger SeoulChallenger 175Round of 16hardbest of three sets
Shimabukuro vs Friend: prediction and tips
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Our tips
Tip in 12h 25mFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon on match day, for earlier ones 3 hours before the order-of-play time.
Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength.
Winner
Sho Shimabukuro54%
Jay Friend46%
Elo: S. Shimabukuro 45% · J. Friend 55%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
2:0 S. Shimabukuro35%
2:1 S. Shimabukuro20%
2:1 J. Friend18%
2:0 J. Friend27%
First set
Sho Shimabukuro54%
Jay Friend46%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes38%
no62%
Total games
The bookmakers' lineOver 22.5 · 50%market (no margin): 48%
The 22.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).
Expected total: 23.8
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19.5 | 71% | 29% | 62% |
| 20.5 | 63% | 37% | 54% |
| 21.5 | 57% | 43% | 49% |
| 22.5 | 50% | 50% | 42% |
| 23.5 | 44% | 56% | 37% |
| 24.5 | 41% | 59% | 35% |
| 25.5 | 38% | 62% | 32% |
Sample: 5,549 matches
Games handicap
S. Shimabukuro −1.550%
Tie-break in the match
Tie-break: yes40%
tour average 32%
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| S. Shimabukuro | Tour | J. Friend | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 64% | 62% | 65% |
| Return points won | 37% | 38% | 38% |
| Service games held | 78% | 76% | 82% |
| Breaks of serve | 25% | 24% | 23% |
| Aces per service game | 0.54 | 0.47 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.25 | 0.29 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 16% | 20% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 16/27 | 13/23 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 70% | 58% | |
| Matches in the sample | 71 | 48 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Sho Shimabukuro
- 27/10/26WJan Kumstat#189Challenger Seoul · R326:4 6:0
- 22/10/26LDaniil Medvedev#5ATP Almaty · R162:6 1:6
- 20/10/26WRoman Safiullin#69ATP Almaty · R326:7 6:4 6:4
- 07/10/26LMiomir Kecmanovic#58ATP Shanghai · R1282:6 4:6
- 01/10/26LDenis Shapovalov#52ATP Tokyo · R325:7 1:6
- 24/09/26LHugo Gaston#110ATP Hangzhou · R324:6 4:6
- 30/08/26LArthur Rinderknech#61ATP US Open · R1287:6 2:6 6:7 2:6
- 23/08/26LMiomir Kecmanovic#58ATP Winston Salem · R644:6 3:6
- 14/08/26LHubert Hurkacz#28ATP Cincinnati · R1282:6 4:6
- 13/08/26LJeffrey John Wolf#210ATP Cincinnati · Q23:6 6:3 5:7
Jay Friend
- 27/10/26WAugust Holmgren#271Challenger Seoul · R326:3 6:3
- 23/10/26LColeman Wong#87Challenger Guangzhou Nansha · QF6:7 1:6
- 21/10/26WJames McCabe#255Challenger Guangzhou Nansha · R164:6 7:6 6:4
- 20/10/26WOgnjen Milic#362Challenger Guangzhou Nansha · R326:4 6:7 7:6
- 15/10/26LAlexander Shevchenko#109Challenger Jinan · R160:6 4:6
- 13/10/26WAlibek Kachmazov#360Challenger Jinan · R326:7 7:5 6:3
- 11/10/26LAlibek Kachmazov#360Challenger Wuning 3 · F6:4 6:7 6:7
- 10/10/26WKeisuke Saitoh#481Challenger Wuning 3 · SF6:2 6:1
- 09/10/26WRyan Seggerman#568Challenger Wuning 3 · QF7:6 6:2
- 08/10/26WMitsuki Wei Kang Leong#408Challenger Wuning 3 · R166:3 6:3
Elo over the last year
Sho ShimabukuroJay Friend
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| S. Shimabukuro | J. Friend | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 32–2457% | 31–1765% |
| Clay | 1–325% | 0–0 |
| Grass | 7–464% | 0–0 |
Head to head
They have not met yet.
Road through the tournament
Sho Shimabukuro
- 27/10/26WJan Kumstat#189Challenger Seoul · R326:4 6:0
Jay Friend
- 27/10/26WAugust Holmgren#271Challenger Seoul · R326:3 6:3