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WTA Hong KongWTA 250Round of 32hardbest of three sets

Shubladze vs Samsonova 2:1: result and our tips

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Alexandra ShubladzeWTA #136Elo 1727hard 1720
2:1final5:7 6:1 6:2
Liudmila SamsonovaWTA #40Elo 1861hard 1831

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Over 18.5Won69%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Over 18.5 games in recent matches: Shubladze 11 of 15, Samsonova 18 of 20 (tour average 64%)

Long shot
Total Games: Over 24.5Won37%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Over 24.5 games in recent matches: Shubladze 6 of 15, Samsonova 14 of 20 (tour average 32%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Alexandra Shubladze43%
Liudmila Samsonova57%

Elo: A. Shubladze 35% · L. Samsonova 66%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 A. Shubladze28%
2:1 A. Shubladze18%
2:1 L. Samsonova20%
2:0 L. Samsonova34%

First set

Alexandra Shubladze47%
Liudmila Samsonova53%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes38%
no62%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 21.5 · 51%market (no margin): 51%

The 21.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 22.6

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
18.569%31%64%
19.561%39%56%
20.555%45%49%
21.549%51%44%
22.543%57%38%
23.539%61%34%
24.537%64%32%

Sample: 2,481 matches

Games handicap

L. Samsonova −1.549%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes25%

tour average 22%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite lost
  • Most likely set scorewas 2:1
  • Total games Under 21.5out · 27 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Alexandra ShubladzeLiudmila Samsonova
—Aces—
—Double faults—
—First serves in—
—First-serve points won—
—Second-serve points won—
0/0Break points converted0/0
0/0Service games held0/0
—Service points won—
—Return points won—
0Total points won0

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

A. ShubladzeTourL. Samsonova
Service points won57%56%58%
Return points won48%44%42%
Service games held67%63%69%
Breaks of serve46%37%32%
Aces per service game0.100.25
Double faults per game0.380.42
Sets with a tie-break21%10%
Tie-breaks won1/75/12
Wins in straight sets80%62%
Matches in the sample1547

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Alexandra Shubladze

Liudmila Samsonova

Elo over the last year

Alexandra ShubladzeLiudmila Samsonova

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

A. ShubladzeL. Samsonova
Hard court10–471%15–1747%
Clay0–03–538%
Grass0–10%3–443%

Head to head

They have not met yet.

Road through the tournament

Alexandra Shubladze

Liudmila Samsonova

First match in this tournament.

See also