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Challenger GuayaquilChallenger 75Qualifying round 2claybest of three setsqualifying

Tobon vs Salazar Martinez 2:0: result and our tips

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Miguel TobonATP #444Elo 1617clay 1627
2:0final6:2 6:3
Daniel Salazar MartinezATP #658Elo 1484clay 1488

Our tips

No tip for this match: when the tips were published, no bet on offer had clear support in our data. We never force a tip.

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Miguel Tobon86%
Daniel Salazar Martinez15%

Elo: M. Tobon 69% · D. Salazar Martinez 31%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 M. Tobon64%
2:1 M. Tobon21%
2:1 D. Salazar Martinez7%
2:0 D. Salazar Martinez8%

First set

Miguel Tobon78%
Daniel Salazar Martinez22%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes28%
no72%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 19.5 · 54%market (no margin): 47%

The 19.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 20.6

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
15.582%18%91%
16.573%27%84%
17.563%37%76%
18.553%47%68%
19.546%54%59%
20.540%60%52%
21.535%65%47%

Sample: 1,813 matches

Games handicap

M. Tobon −5.550%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes18%

tour average 27%

Bookmakers offer no tie-break bet on this match.

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorehit 2:0
  • Total games Under 19.5in · 17 games
  • Games handicapcovered

Match stats

Miguel TobonDaniel Salazar Martinez
4Aces1
2Double faults0
57%First serves in71%
84%First-serve points won51%
57%Second-serve points won65%
3/7Break points converted0/4
9/9Service games held5/8
72%Service points won55%
45%Return points won28%
65Total points won47

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

M. TobonTourD. Salazar Martinez
Service points won62%62%58%
Return points won39%38%41%
Service games held75%76%69%
Breaks of serve26%24%31%
Aces per service game0.380.18
Double faults per game0.330.17
Sets with a tie-break21%5%
Tie-breaks won13/270/2
Wins in straight sets50%67%
Matches in the sample5318

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Miguel Tobon

Daniel Salazar Martinez

  • 25/10/26WYounes Lalami LaaroussiChallenger Guayaquil · Q14:6 6:3 6:3
  • 20/10/26LJuan Bautista Torres#298Challenger Cali · R323:6 1:6
  • 19/10/26WAlan Magadan#501Challenger Cali · Q26:3 6:1
  • 18/10/26WBenjamin Torrealba#829Challenger Cali · Q16:3 6:4
  • 06/09/26LMika Petkovic#392Challenger Genoa · Q12:6 2:6
  • 16/08/26LLorenzo Bocchi#613Challenger Sion · Q12:6 5:7
  • 13/07/26LGeorgii Kravchenko#305Challenger Cordenons · Q11:6 6:4 3:6
  • 12/07/26WFederico Arnaboldi#470Challenger Cordenons · Q13:6 6:3 6:2
  • 14/06/26LMatteo Martineau#245Challenger Parma · Q12:6 5:7
  • 13/04/26LSantiago De la Fuente#712Challenger Santa Cruz · Q21:6 2:6

Elo over the last year

Miguel TobonDaniel Salazar Martinez

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

M. TobonD. Salazar Martinez
Hard court9–950%0–0
Clay17–1849%9–950%

Head to head

They have not met yet.

Road through the tournament

Miguel Tobon

Daniel Salazar Martinez