Challenger JinanChallenger 175Round of 16hardbest of three sets
Watanuki vs Cilic: prediction and tips
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Our tips
Tip in 2h 59mFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon on match day, for earlier ones 3 hours before the order-of-play time.
Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength.
Winner
Yosuke Watanuki41%
Marin Cilic59%
Elo: Y. Watanuki 26% · M. Cilic 74%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
2:0 Y. Watanuki24%
2:1 Y. Watanuki17%
2:1 M. Cilic21%
2:0 M. Cilic38%
First set
Yosuke Watanuki43%
Marin Cilic57%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes38%
no62%
Total games
The bookmakers' lineUnder 23.0 · 50%market (no margin): 49%
The 23.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).
Expected total: 23.7
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19.5 | 71% | 29% | 62% |
| 20.5 | 62% | 38% | 54% |
| 21.5 | 56% | 44% | 49% |
| 22.5 | 50% | 50% | 42% |
| 23.5 | 43% | 57% | 37% |
| 24.5 | 40% | 60% | 35% |
| 25.5 | 37% | 63% | 32% |
Sample: 5,831 matches
Games handicap
Marin Cilic −2.549%
Tie-break in the match
Tie-break: yes40%
tour average 32%
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| Y. Watanuki | Tour | M. Cilic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 61% | 62% | 65% |
| Return points won | 39% | 38% | 34% |
| Service games held | 73% | 76% | 83% |
| Breaks of serve | 30% | 24% | 18% |
| Aces per service game | 0.65 | 0.76 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.27 | 0.26 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 13% | 21% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 6/9 | 8/20 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 73% | 70% | |
| Matches in the sample | 29 | 39 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Yosuke Watanuki
- 14/10/26WAndre Ilagan#194Challenger Jinan · R326:2 6:2
- 12/10/26WKaito UesugiChallenger Jinan · Q26:2 6:2
- 11/10/26WSemen Pankin#432Challenger Jinan · Q16:1 6:0
- 07/09/26LMarat Sharipov#234Challenger Shanghai · R327:6 5:7 2:6
- 02/09/26LChun Hsin Tseng#225Challenger Zhangjiagang · R165:7 3:6
- 31/08/26WSemen Pankin#432Challenger Zhangjiagang · R326:3 7:5
- 29/07/26LHayato Matsuoka#247Challenger Vancouver · R324:6 2:6
- 22/07/26LToby Samuel#100Challenger Winnipeg · R160:6 1:6
- 20/07/26WAndre Ilagan#194Challenger Winnipeg · R327:6 7:5
- 14/07/26LAugust Holmgren#236Challenger Granby · R327:6 4:6 5:7
Marin Cilic
- 13/10/26WAdam Walton#98Challenger Jinan · R326:3 3:6 6:1
- 07/10/26LArthur Fery#37ATP Shanghai · R1286:7 1:6
- 14/08/26LDaniel Merida#44ATP Cincinnati · R1286:3 1:6 1:6
- 04/08/26LFrances Tiafoe#10ATP Montreal · R647:5 2:6 2:6
- 03/08/26WSho Shimabukuro#109ATP Montreal · R1287:6 6:1
- 29/06/26LDaniil Medvedev#6ATP Wimbledon · R1281:6 2:6 4:6
- 16/06/26LUgo Humbert#32ATP London · R325:7 3:6
- 12/06/26LDaniil Medvedev#6ATP S-Hertogenbosch · QF2:6 6:3 1:6
- 11/06/26WNuno Borges#51ATP S-Hertogenbosch · R163:6 7:6 6:3
- 08/06/26WDenis Shapovalov#42ATP S-Hertogenbosch · R326:7 6:4 7:5
Elo over the last year
Yosuke WatanukiMarin Cilic
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| Y. Watanuki | M. Cilic | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 15–1060% | 15–1256% |
| Clay | 0–40% | 3–443% |
| Grass | 0–0 | 2–340% |
Head to head
They have not met yet.
Road through the tournament
Yosuke Watanuki
- 11/10/26WSemen Pankin#432Challenger Jinan · Q16:1 6:0
- 12/10/26WKaito UesugiChallenger Jinan · Q26:2 6:2
- 14/10/26WAndre Ilagan#194Challenger Jinan · R326:2 6:2
Marin Cilic
- 13/10/26WAdam Walton#98Challenger Jinan · R326:3 3:6 6:1