Primera LPFMatchday 5

Barracas Central 0-1 Rosario Central: prediction, tips and result

Monday 17 August · 00:15

Barracas Central

1-2 1-0 1-0 1-0 0-2

0-1Full time(half time 0-1)

Rosario Central

2-1 1-0 0-0 1-2 0-1

Stadium:: Estadio Claudio Chiqui Tapia, Barracas
Referee:: Pablo Dovalo

The match in numbers

1X2EloBarracas Central157637%23%Draw33%29%Rosario Central176130%49%favourite did not win

Goalsattack/defenceBTTS39%44%O2.530%37%|exp. goals 1.1 : 1.1not both scored

H2Hlast 4 meetings

16/02/202616/02/26Rosario Central2:0Barracas CentralL
01/11/202401/11/24Rosario Central0:1Barracas CentralW
09/06/202309/06/23Barracas Central0:0Rosario CentralD
13/08/202213/08/22Rosario Central3:1Barracas CentralL

Barracas Central's record: 1 win, 1 draw, 2 losses1.8 goals per match

Cornersleague corners8.4league 8.6under 8.5: 54%Expected corners: 8.4 in this match, 8.6 on average in the league.In this league 50% of matches end under 8.5 corners.won · ended 8

Cardsleague cards4.8league 5.1under 5.5: 65%Expected cards: 4.8 in this match, 5.1 on average in the league.In this league 60% of matches end under 5.5 cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 28%.won · ended 3

RefereeP. Dovalo−0.6 cards vs average16 matches

Prediction: result and goals

Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams

Expected goals

Market1.0 : 0.9total 1.9Attack/defence1.1 : 1.1total 2.2

Barracas Central : Rosario Central

Most likely scores

Market0-016%1-114%1-014%0-112%2-08%1-2—2-1—Attack/defence0-012%1-114%1-012%0-112%2-0—1-27%2-17%

MarketAttack/defence0-00-016%0-012%1-11-114%1-114%1-01-014%1-012%0-10-112%0-112%2-02-08%2-0—1-21-2—1-27%2-12-1—2-17%

Outcome	Market	Attack/defence
Under 3.5 goals	87%83%	83%
1X – home team avoid defeat	70%64%	64%
Under 2.5 goals	70%63%	63%
12 – no draw	67%70%	70%
X2 – away team avoid defeat	63%66%	66%
Both teams to score: no	61%56%	56%
Over 1.5 goals	58%64%	64%
Under 1.5 goals	42%36%	36%
Both teams to score: yes	39%44%	44%
1 – Barracas Central win	37%34% · Elo 23%	34%· Elo 23%
X – draw	33%30% · Elo 29%	30%· Elo 29%
2 – Rosario Central win	30%36% · Elo 49%	36%· Elo 49%
Over 2.5 goals	30%37%	37%
Over 3.5 goals	13%17%	17%

Attack vs defence

Barracas Central attack vs Rosario Central defenceattack1472defence1566−94 pts to the attack

Rosario Central attack vs Barracas Central defenceattack1554defence1468+86 pts to the attack

1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.

League form