Primera LPFMatchday 1

Defensa y Justicia 1-1 Aldosivi: prediction, tips and result

Friday 24 July · 01:45

Defensa y Justicia

0-2 1-2 1-3 0-4 1-2

1-1Full time(half time 1-1)

Aldosivi

1-1 1-3 1-1 0-1 0-0

Stadium:: Estadio Norberto Tomaghello, Gobernador Julio A. Costa
Referee:: Daniel Zamora

The match in numbers

1X2EloDefensa y Justicia161749%46%Draw30%30%Aldosivi148921%24%favourite did not win

Goalsattack/defenceBTTS39%48%O2.534%45%|exp. goals 1.5 : 0.9both scored

H2Hlast 5 meetings

22/01/202622/01/26Aldosivi0:0Defensa y JusticiaD
22/07/202522/07/25Defensa y Justicia2:0AldosiviW
30/01/202530/01/25Aldosivi0:5Defensa y JusticiaW
11/07/202211/07/22Defensa y Justicia3:2AldosiviW
09/08/202109/08/21Aldosivi1:0Defensa y JusticiaL

Defensa y Justicia's record: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss2.6 goals per match

Cornersleague corners8.9league 8.6over 8.5: 52%Expected corners: 8.9 in this match, 8.6 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end over 8.5 corners.lost · ended 8

Cardsleague cards5.5league 5.3under 5.5: 53%Expected cards: 5.5 in this match, 5.3 on average in the league.In this league 55% of matches end under 5.5 cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 21%.won · ended 5

RefereeD. Zamora+1.4 cards vs average6 matches

Prediction: result and goals

Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams

Expected goals

Market1.3 : 0.7total 2.0Attack/defence1.5 : 0.9total 2.5

Defensa y Justicia : Aldosivi

Most likely scores

Market1-016%0-014%1-113%2-011%2-1—0-19%Attack/defence1-013%0-09%1-113%2-010%2-19%0-18%

MarketAttack/defence1-01-016%1-013%0-00-014%0-09%1-11-113%1-113%2-02-011%2-010%2-12-1—2-19%0-10-19%0-18%

Outcome	Market	Attack/defence
Under 3.5 goals	85%76%	76%
1X – home team avoid defeat	79%77%	77%
12 – no draw	70%74%	74%
Under 2.5 goals	66%55%	55%
Over 1.5 goals	62%71%	71%
Both teams to score: no	61%52%	52%
X2 – away team avoid defeat	51%49%	49%
1 – Defensa y Justicia win	49%51% · Elo 46%	51%· Elo 46%
Both teams to score: yes	39%48%	48%
Under 1.5 goals	38%29%	29%
Over 2.5 goals	34%45%	45%
X – draw	30%27% · Elo 30%	27%· Elo 30%
2 – Aldosivi win	21%23% · Elo 24%	23%· Elo 24%
Over 3.5 goals	15%24%	24%

Attack vs defence

Defensa y Justicia attack vs Aldosivi defenceattack1521defence1416+105 pts to the attack

Aldosivi attack vs Defensa y Justicia defenceattack1415defence1418−3 pts to the attack

1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.

Worth knowing before kick-off

Aldosivi: only 1 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
Aldosivi score only 0.4 goals per game
Defensa y Justicia: 5 defeats in a row
Aldosivi: no win in 16 matches
Aldosivi: only 5 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 10 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
Defensa y Justicia concede a lot late on: 9 of 21 after the 75th minute Last 20 league matches. Usually about 25% of goals come after the 75th minute.
Defensa y Justicia: 80 days since the last match, 0 matches in the last 14 days.
Aldosivi: 81 days since the last match, 0 matches in the last 14 days.

League form