1. DivisionMatchday 12
Vejle vs Aarhus Fremad: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 10d 11hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS58%O2.554%|exp. goals 1.5 : 1.3
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Aarhus Fremad0:0VejleD
- Aarhus Fremad0:2VejleW
- Vejle2:1Aarhus FremadW
- Vejle3:1Aarhus FremadW
- Aarhus Fremad0:2VejleW
Vejle's record: 4 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses2.2 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.9league 9.9over 9.5: 52%Expected corners: 9.9 in this match, 9.9 on average in the league.In this league 53% of matches end over 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.0league 3.2under 3.5: 64%Expected yellow cards: 3.0 in this match, 3.2 on average in the league.In this league 60% of matches end under 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 9%.
Refereeno referee data
Prediction: result and goals
Modelno odds, our statistical modelAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Model1.9 : 1.4total 3.3Attack/defence1.5 : 1.3total 2.9
Vejle : Aarhus FremadMost likely scores
Model1-111%2-19%1-0—1-27%0-1—2-07%2-27%Attack/defence1-112%2-19%1-08%1-28%0-17%2-07%2-2—
ModelAttack/defence1-11-111%1-112%2-12-19%2-19%1-01-0—1-08%1-21-27%1-28%0-10-1—0-17%2-02-07%2-07%2-22-27%2-2—
| Outcome | Model | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| 12 – no draw | 76%74% | 74% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 72%67% | 67% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 52%59% | 59% |
| 1 – Vejle win | 48%41% · Elo 59% | 41%· Elo 59% |
| 2 – Aarhus Fremad win | 28%33% · Elo 18% | 33%· Elo 18% |
| X – draw | 24%26% · Elo 23% | 26%· Elo 23% |
Attack vs defence
Vejle attack vs Aarhus Fremad defenceattack1588defence1550+38 pts to the attack
Aarhus Fremad attack vs Vejle defenceattack1499defence1469+30 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 9.5 · 56%close to the league averageunderover 44%
We expect 9.2 in this match, 9.1 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.8.556%53%
9.544%45%
10.532%37%
11.523%28%
Each team on its own
Vejlewe expect 5.3, league average 4.6 · chance of over 4.5: 59%
Aarhus Fremadwe expect 4.0, league average 4.5 · chance of over 4.5: 37%
Foulsleague average
Under 19.5 · 65%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 35%
We expect 17.9 in this match, 19.9 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.18.543%50%
19.535%45%
20.528%43%
21.522%40%
Each team on its own
Vejlewe expect 8.7, league average 9.5 · chance of over 9.5: 37%
Aarhus Fremadwe expect 8.9, league average 10.4 · chance of over 10.5: 30%
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 61%close to the league averageunderover 39%
We expect 3.2 in this match, 3.4 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.561%62%
3.539%42%
4.522%28%
5.511%18%
Each team on its own
Vejlewe expect 1.2, league average 1.6 · chance of over 1.5: 33%
Aarhus Fremadwe expect 2.0, league average 1.8 · chance of over 1.5: 58%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Vejle matches average only 1.9 cards (league 3.3) Average cards of both teams in their last 10 league matches. Cards depend mostly on the referee.
- Vejle score 2.3 goals per game
- Vejle: newly promoted
- Vejle: 7 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
- Aarhus Fremad: 8 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Vejle | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 23:15 | 19 |
| 6 | Aarhus Fremad | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 10:11 | 13 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Vejle vs Aarhus Fremad?
Vejle are the favourites. Chances: Vejle win 48%, draw 24%, Aarhus Fremad win 28%. No odds for this match: chances from our statistical model.
How many goals will there be in Vejle vs Aarhus Fremad?
Expected goals: 3.3 (Vejle 1.9, Aarhus Fremad 1.4). Most likely score: 1-1.
When is Vejle vs Aarhus Fremad?
The 1. Division match kicks off 24 October 2026, 17:30 (UK time).