1. DivisionMatchday 11
Aarhus Fremad vs Esbjerg: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 2d 11hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS62%56%O2.560%52%|exp. goals 1.6 : 1.2
H2Hlast 4 meetings
- Aarhus Fremad0:1EsbjergL
- Esbjerg1:1Aarhus FremadD
- Esbjerg3:1Aarhus FremadL
- Aarhus Fremad1:1EsbjergD
Aarhus Fremad's record: 0 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses2.2 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.1league 9.9over 9.5: 55%Expected corners: 10.1 in this match, 9.9 on average in the league.In this league 53% of matches end over 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.0league 3.2under 3.5: 64%Expected yellow cards: 3.0 in this match, 3.2 on average in the league.In this league 60% of matches end under 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 9%.
Refereeno referee data
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.7 : 1.4total 3.1Attack/defence1.6 : 1.2total 2.8
Aarhus Fremad : EsbjergMost likely scores
Market1-111%1-07%2-19%2-07%0-1—1-27%Attack/defence1-112%1-010%2-19%2-08%0-17%1-27%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-111%1-112%1-01-07%1-010%2-12-19%2-19%2-02-07%2-08%0-10-1—0-17%1-21-27%1-27%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82%76% | 76% |
| 12 – no draw | 75%74% | 74% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 70%71% | 71% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 62%70% | 70% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 62%56% | 56% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60%52% | 52% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 55%54% | 54% |
| 1 – Aarhus Fremad win | 45%46% · Elo 43% | 46%· Elo 43% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40%48% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38%30% | 30% |
| Both teams to score: no | 38%44% | 44% |
| 2 – Esbjerg win | 30%29% · Elo 30% | 29%· Elo 30% |
| X – draw | 25%26% · Elo 27% | 26%· Elo 27% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 18%24% | 24% |
Attack vs defence
Aarhus Fremad attack vs Esbjerg defenceattack1499defence1443+56 pts to the attack
Esbjerg attack vs Aarhus Fremad defenceattack1521defence1550−29 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 9.5 · 63%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 37%
We expect 8.7 in this match, 9.1 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.8.550%53%
9.537%45%
10.527%37%
11.518%28%
Each team on its own
Aarhus Fremadwe expect 3.9, league average 4.6 · chance of over 4.5: 35%
Esbjergwe expect 4.5, league average 4.5 · chance of over 4.5: 47%
Foulsleague average
Under 19.5 · 74%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 26%
We expect 16.6 in this match, 19.9 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.18.533%50%
19.526%45%
20.520%43%
21.515%40%
Each team on its own
Aarhus Fremadwe expect 7.1, league average 9.5 · chance of over 9.5: 19%
Esbjergwe expect 9.2, league average 10.4 · chance of over 10.5: 32%
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 58%close to the league averageunderover 42%
We expect 3.3 in this match, 3.4 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.564%62%
3.542%42%
4.525%28%
5.512%18%
Each team on its own
Aarhus Fremadwe expect 1.5, league average 1.6 · chance of over 1.5: 44%
Esbjergwe expect 1.8, league average 1.8 · chance of over 1.5: 54%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Esbjerg concede 2.2 goals per game
- Esbjerg: no win in 8 matches
- Esbjerg: only 6 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 13 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
- Aarhus Fremad: 7 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
- Esbjerg: 6 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Aarhus Fremad | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 10:11 | 13 |
| 12 | Esbjerg | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 13:22 | 6 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Aarhus Fremad vs Esbjerg?
Aarhus Fremad are the favourites. Chances: Aarhus Fremad win 45%, draw 25%, Esbjerg win 30%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Aarhus Fremad vs Esbjerg?
Expected goals: 3.1 (Aarhus Fremad 1.7, Esbjerg 1.4). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 60%. Most likely score: 1-1.
Will both teams score in Aarhus Fremad vs Esbjerg?
The chance that both teams score is 62%.
When is Aarhus Fremad vs Esbjerg?
The 1. Division match kicks off 16 October 2026, 18:00 (UK time).