SuperligaMatchday 10
Aarhus 3-0 Sonderjyske: prediction, tips and result
·
- Stadium:
- Vejlby Stadion, Aarhus
- Referee:
- Mads-Kristoffer Kristoffersen
Our tips
Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.
Main tip
Both Teams To Score: YesLost60%
goals at both ends in 5 of the last 5 head-to-head meetings
Other tips
- Cards – Sonderjyske (yellow=1, red=2): Over 1.5Lost68%
Sonderjyske: 2.3 card points a match, Aarhus's opponents collected 2.8 card points on average, league average 2.0; scoring: yellow 1, red 2, second yellow 3 in total
- Offsides – Aarhus: Under 1.5Lost62%
Aarhus: under 1.5 offsides in 8 of their last 9 league matches, Sonderjyske's opponents were caught offside under 1.5 times in 7 of 9 (57% of league matches); 0.9 offsides a match, Sonderjyske's opponents were caught offside 1.1 times on average, league average 1.7
- Shots on Target – Sonderjyske: Under 4.5Won68%
our numbers for Sonderjyske: 3.7 shots on target against a league average of 4.1
For the brave
Correct Score: 2:1Lost10%
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS59%60%O2.565%62%|exp. goals 2.0 : 1.2not both scored
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Aarhus2:1SonderjyskeW
- Sonderjyske1:1AarhusD
- Aarhus2:3SonderjyskeL
- Sonderjyske1:1AarhusD
- Sonderjyske1:4AarhusW
Aarhus's record: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss3.4 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.8league 9.9over 9.5: 51%Expected corners: 9.8 in this match, 9.9 on average in the league.In this league 55% of matches end over 9.5 corners.won · ended 10
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.8league 3.3over 3.5: 52%Expected yellow cards: 3.8 in this match, 3.3 on average in the league.In this league 47% of matches end over 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 10%.lost · ended 1
RefereeM.-K. Kristoffersen+0.8 yellow cards vs average16 matches
Dutching(several bets at once)70%BTTS yes2:0coverageleague 67% · H2H 5/5not covered
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market2.3 : 1.1total 3.4Attack/defence2.0 : 1.2total 3.2
Aarhus : SonderjyskeMost likely scores
Market2-110%1-19%2-09%1-07%3-17%2-2—Attack/defence2-110%1-110%2-08%1-08%3-17%2-26%
MarketAttack/defence2-12-110%2-110%1-11-19%1-110%2-02-09%2-08%1-01-07%1-08%3-13-17%3-17%2-22-2—2-26%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 85%83% | 83% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 84%79% | 79% |
| 12 – no draw | 80%78% | 78% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65%62% | 62% |
| 1 – Aarhus win | 64%57% · Elo 56% | 57%· Elo 56% |
| Our tip: Both teams to score: yes | 59%60% | 60% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 57%60% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 43%40% | 40% |
| Both teams to score: no | 41%40% | 40% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 36%43% | 43% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 35%38% | 38% |
| X – draw | 20%22% · Elo 25% | 22%· Elo 25% |
| 2 – Sonderjyske win | 16%21% · Elo 19% | 21%· Elo 19% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 15%17% | 17% |
Attack vs defence
Aarhus attack vs Sonderjyske defenceattack1549defence1418+131 pts to the attack
Sonderjyske attack vs Aarhus defenceattack1463defence1537−74 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 9.5 · 55%close to the league averageunderover 45%
We expect 9.3 in this match, 9.1 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.8.557%53%
9.545%41%
10.533%34%
11.523%24%
Each team on its own
Aarhuswe expect 5.8, league average 5.0 · chance of over 5.5: 51%
Sonderjyskewe expect 3.7, league average 4.1 · chance of over 4.5: 32%
Foulsleague average
Over 20.5 · 62%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 38%over
We expect 22.5 in this match, 20.7 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.19.568%57%
20.562%51%
21.555%40%
22.548%34%
Each team on its own
Aarhuswe expect 9.8, league average 10.1 · chance of over 10.5: 40%
Sonderjyskewe expect 13.8, league average 10.7 · chance of over 10.5: 78%
Referee: 18.1 fouls per match on average (12 matches in our data)−1.8 vs the league average
Offsidesleague average
Under 2.5 · 56%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 44%
We expect 2.4 in this match, 3.0 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.1.570%79%
2.544%54%
3.523%34%
4.510%18%
Each team on its own
Aarhuswe expect 1.3, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 38%
Sonderjyskewe expect 1.0, league average 1.3 · chance of over 1.5: 28%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Sonderjyske concede 2.5 goals per game
- Aarhus: no win in 9 matches
- Aarhus: only 8 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 15 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
- Aarhus concede a lot late on: 11 of 27 after the 75th minute Last 20 league matches. Usually about 25% of goals come after the 75th minute.
- Aarhus: 22 days since the last match, 0 matches in the last 14 days.
- Sonderjyske: 22 days since the last match, 0 matches in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Aarhus | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 14:17 | 8 |
| 12 | Sonderjyske | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 12:24 | 5 |
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Aarhus vs Sonderjyske?
Aarhus 3-0 Sonderjyske (half time 3-0).
Did the Aarhus vs Sonderjyske tip win?
Our pre-match tip: Both Teams To Score: Yes. The tip lost.