ChampionshipMatchday 9

Sheffield United 3-0 Lincoln: prediction, tips and result

Saturday 10 October · 15:00

Sheffield United

3-2 1-3 2-1 0-1 1-2

3-0Full time(half time 1-0)

Lincoln

1-2 1-0 1-0 1-1 0-0

Stadium:: Bramall Lane, Sheffield
Referee:: Josh Smith

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: 10 October 2026, 11:40. A published tip never changes.

Main tip

Fouls – Lincoln: Over 11.5Won59%

our numbers for Lincoln: 12.7 fouls against a league average of 10.6; Lincoln: over 11.5 fouls in 5 of their last 8 league matches, Sheffield United's opponents committed over 11.5 in 6 of 8 (38% of league matches)

Other tips

Offsides – Lincoln: Over 1.5Lost58%
Lincoln: over 1.5 offsides in 5 of their last 8 league matches, Sheffield United's opponents were caught offside over 1.5 times in 7 of 8 (50% of league matches); 2.6 offsides a match, Sheffield United's opponents were caught offside 1.9 times on average, league average 1.8
Shots on Target – Sheffield United: Under 4.5Lost55%
Sheffield United: under 4.5 shots on target in 7 of their last 8 league matches, Lincoln's opponents had under 4.5 in 5 of 8 (57% of league matches)

For the brave

Fouls – Lincoln: Over 12.5Won49%

our numbers for Lincoln: 12.7 fouls against a league average of 10.6; Lincoln: over 12.5 fouls in 4 of their last 8 league matches, Sheffield United's opponents committed over 12.5 in 5 of 8 (29% of league matches)

How our tips did

The match in numbers

1X2EloSheffield United159644%47%Draw28%27%Lincoln152528%26%favourite won

Goalsattack/defenceBTTS52%54%O2.547%50%|exp. goals 1.5 : 1.2not both scored

H2Hhome side's goals firstnever met

Cornersleague corners10.6league 10.4under 10.5: 52%Expected corners: 10.6 in this match, 10.4 on average in the league.In this league 54% of matches end under 10.5 corners.won · ended 4

Yellow cardsleague yellows3.8league 3.8over 3.5: 53%Expected yellow cards: 3.8 in this match, 3.8 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end over 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 17%.won · ended 7

RefereeJ. Smith+0.2 yellow cards vs average35 matches

Dutching(several bets at once)67%X21:0coverageleague 68%not covered

Prediction: result and goals

Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams

Expected goals

Market1.4 : 1.1total 2.5Attack/defence1.5 : 1.2total 2.7

Sheffield United : Lincoln

Most likely scores

Market1-113%1-010%2-19%0-09%2-08%0-1—Attack/defence1-113%1-010%2-19%0-07%2-08%0-18%

MarketAttack/defence1-11-113%1-113%1-01-010%1-010%2-12-19%2-19%0-00-09%0-07%2-02-08%2-08%0-10-1—0-18%

Outcome	Market	Attack/defence
Under 3.5 goals	75%72%	72%
Over 1.5 goals	73%75%	75%
1X – home team avoid defeat	72%71%	71%
12 – no draw	72%74%	74%
X2 – away team avoid defeat	56%55%	55%
Under 2.5 goals	53%50%	50%
Both teams to score: yes	52%54%	54%
Both teams to score: no	48%46%	46%
Over 2.5 goals	47%50%	50%
1 – Sheffield United win	44%45% · Elo 47%	45%· Elo 47%
X – draw	28%26% · Elo 27%	26%· Elo 27%
2 – Lincoln win	28%29% · Elo 26%	29%· Elo 26%
Under 1.5 goals	27%25%	25%
Over 3.5 goals	25%28%	28%

Attack vs defence

Sheffield United attack vs Lincoln defenceattack1523defence1515+8 pts to the attack

Lincoln attack vs Sheffield United defenceattack1486defence1496−10 pts to the attack

1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.

Shots on target, fouls, offsides

Shots on targetleague average

Over 7.5 · 51%close to the league averageunder 49%over

We expect 7.8 in this match, 8.0 on average in the league.

LineChance of overLeague

6.565%67%

7.551%55%

8.538%39%

9.526%29%

Both teams combined. Main line in bold.

Each team on its own

Sheffield Unitedwe expect 4.4, league average 4.4 · chance of over 4.5: 45%

Lincolnwe expect 3.3, league average 3.6 · chance of over 3.5: 41%

Foulsleague average

Over 20.5 · 63%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 37%over

We expect 22.7 in this match, 20.3 on average in the league.

LineChance of overLeague

19.570%57%

20.563%47%

21.556%37%

22.549%33%

Both teams combined. Main line in bold.

Each team on its own

Sheffield Unitedwe expect 10.2, league average 9.7 · chance of over 9.5: 55%

Lincolnwe expect 12.7, league average 10.6 · chance of over 10.5: 69%

Referee: 20.2 fouls per match on average (32 matches in our data)+0.3 vs the league average

Offsidesleague average

Under 3.5 · 53%close to the league averageunderover 47%

We expect 3.6 in this match, 3.7 on average in the league.

LineChance of overLeague

2.568%66%

3.547%48%

4.529%31%

5.515%19%

Both teams combined. Main line in bold.

Each team on its own

Sheffield Unitedwe expect 1.5, league average 1.9 · chance of over 1.5: 44%

Lincolnwe expect 2.0, league average 1.8 · chance of over 1.5: 58%

Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.

Worth knowing before kick-off

Lincoln: newly promoted
Sheffield United: 21 days since the last match, 0 matches in the last 14 days.
Lincoln: 21 days since the last match, 0 matches in the last 14 days.

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