League OneMatchday 11
Sheffield Weds vs AFC Wimbledon: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 3d 11hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS56%50%O2.557%49%|exp. goals 1.7 : 1.0
H2Hlast 2 meetings
- Sheffield Weds2:1AFC WimbledonW
- AFC Wimbledon2:2Sheffield WedsD
Sheffield Weds's record: 1 win, 1 draw, 0 losses3.5 goals per match
too few to read anything intoCornersleague corners10.8league 10.5over 10.5: 51%Expected corners: 10.8 in this match, 10.5 on average in the league.In this league 46% of matches end over 10.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.8league 3.7over 3.5: 52%Expected yellow cards: 3.8 in this match, 3.7 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end over 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 9%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.9 : 1.1total 3.0Attack/defence1.7 : 1.0total 2.6
Sheffield Weds : AFC WimbledonMost likely scores
Market1-111%1-09%2-09%2-110%0-0—0-1—3-16%Attack/defence1-112%1-012%2-010%2-110%0-08%0-17%3-1—
MarketAttack/defence1-11-111%1-112%1-01-09%1-012%2-02-09%2-010%2-12-110%2-110%0-00-0—0-08%0-10-1—0-17%3-13-16%3-1—
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80%74% | 74% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 80%79% | 79% |
| 12 – no draw | 77%75% | 75% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 66%73% | 73% |
| 1 – Sheffield Weds win | 57%54% · Elo 58% | 54%· Elo 58% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57%49% | 49% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 56%50% | 50% |
| Both teams to score: no | 44%50% | 50% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 43%46% | 46% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43%51% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34%27% | 27% |
| X – draw | 23%25% · Elo 23% | 25%· Elo 23% |
| 2 – AFC Wimbledon win | 20%21% · Elo 19% | 21%· Elo 19% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 20%26% | 26% |
Attack vs defence
Sheffield Weds attack vs AFC Wimbledon defenceattack1529defence1471+58 pts to the attack
AFC Wimbledon attack vs Sheffield Weds defenceattack1395defence1535−140 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 7.5 · 65%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 35%
We expect 6.6 in this match, 7.2 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.6.549%61%
7.535%43%
8.523%30%
9.514%17%
Each team on its own
Sheffield Wedswe expect 3.4, league average 3.7 · chance of over 3.5: 44%
AFC Wimbledonwe expect 2.9, league average 3.5 · chance of over 3.5: 34%
Foulsleague average
Over 18.5 · 62%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 38%over
We expect 20.4 in this match, 18.7 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.17.569%56%
18.562%53%
19.555%53%
20.547%51%
Each team on its own
Sheffield Wedswe expect 10.6, league average 8.9 · chance of over 8.5: 70%
AFC Wimbledonwe expect 10.0, league average 9.8 · chance of over 9.5: 53%
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 60%close to the league averageunderover 40%
We expect 3.2 in this match, 3.3 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.562%60%
3.540%43%
4.522%23%
5.511%14%
Each team on its own
Sheffield Wedswe expect 1.7, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 50%
AFC Wimbledonwe expect 1.4, league average 1.8 · chance of over 1.5: 42%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- AFC Wimbledon score only 0.7 goals per game
- Sheffield Weds: newly promoted
- Sheffield Weds: 7 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
- AFC Wimbledon: 7 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Sheffield Weds | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 15:8 | 15 |
| 11 | AFC Wimbledon | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 7:10 | 12 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Sheffield Weds vs AFC Wimbledon?
Sheffield Weds are the favourites. Chances: Sheffield Weds win 57%, draw 23%, AFC Wimbledon win 20%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Sheffield Weds vs AFC Wimbledon?
Expected goals: 3.0 (Sheffield Weds 1.9, AFC Wimbledon 1.1). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 57%. Most likely score: 1-1.
Will both teams score in Sheffield Weds vs AFC Wimbledon?
The chance that both teams score is 56%.
When is Sheffield Weds vs AFC Wimbledon?
The League One match kicks off 17 October 2026, 15:00 (UK time).