Ligue 1Matchday 8
Paris SG vs Lyon: prediction, tips and stats
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- Referee:
- Jerome Brisard
Our tips
Tip in 1d 3hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS61%57%O2.569%59%|exp. goals 2.0 : 1.1
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Paris SG1:2LyonL
- Lyon2:3Paris SGW
- Lyon2:3Paris SGW
- Paris SG3:1LyonW
- Paris SG4:1LyonW
Paris SG's record: 4 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss4.4 goals per match
Cornersleague cornersin line with the league9.8league 9.6over 9.5: 51%Expected corners: 9.8 in this match, 9.6 on average in the league.In this league 48% of matches end over 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellowsin line with the league3.7league 3.6over 3.5: 50%Expected yellow cards: 3.7 in this match, 3.6 on average in the league.In this league 53% of matches end over 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 27%.
RefereeJ. Brisard+0.6 yellow cards vs average21 matches
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market2.5 : 1.1total 3.6Attack/defence2.0 : 1.1total 3.1
Paris SG : LyonMost likely scores
Market1-18%2-19%2-09%1-0—3-18%3-07%Attack/defence1-110%2-110%2-09%1-09%3-17%3-06%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-18%1-110%2-12-19%2-110%2-02-09%2-09%1-01-0—1-09%3-13-18%3-17%3-03-07%3-06%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 88%81% | 81% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 85%81% | 81% |
| 12 – no draw | 83%78% | 78% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 69%59% | 59% |
| 1 – Paris SG win | 68%59% · Elo 76% | 59%· Elo 76% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 61%57% | 57% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 52%63% | 63% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 48%37% | 37% |
| Both teams to score: no | 39%43% | 43% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 32%41% | 41% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 31%41% | 41% |
| X – draw | 17%22% · Elo 15% | 22%· Elo 15% |
| 2 – Lyon win | 15%19% · Elo 9% | 19%· Elo 9% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 12%19% | 19% |
Attack vs defence
Paris SG attack vs Lyon defenceattack1684defence1540+144 pts to the attack
Lyon attack vs Paris SG defenceattack1542defence1634−92 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Over 8.5 · 57%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 43%over
We expect 9.3 in this match, 8.6 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.570%61%
8.557%50%
9.545%39%
10.533%29%
Each team on its own
Paris SGwe expect 5.3, league average 4.7 · chance of over 4.5: 60%
Lyonwe expect 4.4, league average 3.9 · chance of over 3.5: 62%
Foulsleague average
Under 21.5 · 64%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 36%
We expect 19.9 in this match, 21.6 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.20.543%53%
21.536%47%
22.529%42%
23.524%37%
Each team on its own
Paris SGwe expect 8.9, league average 10.9 · chance of over 10.5: 29%
Lyonwe expect 10.2, league average 10.8 · chance of over 10.5: 44%
Referee: 22.3 fouls per match on average (21 matches in our data)+0.8 vs the league average
Offsidesleague average
Over 3.5 · 52%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 48%over
We expect 3.8 in this match, 3.4 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.572%63%
3.552%43%
4.533%26%
5.519%14%
Each team on its own
Paris SGwe expect 1.9, league average 1.8 · chance of over 1.5: 55%
Lyonwe expect 1.9, league average 1.6 · chance of over 1.5: 56%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Lyon matches average 12.9 corners (league 9.6) Average corners of both teams in their last 10 league matches.
- Paris SG: 4 wins in a row in the league
- Paris SG: 6 days since the last match, 3 matches in the last 14 days.
- Lyon: 4 days since the last match, 3 matches in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lyon | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 13:5 | 14 |
| 2 | Paris SG | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14:9 | 14 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Paris SG vs Lyon?
Paris SG are the favourites. Chances: Paris SG win 68%, draw 17%, Lyon win 15%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Paris SG vs Lyon?
Expected goals: 3.6 (Paris SG 2.5, Lyon 1.1). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 69%. Most likely score: 2-1.
Will both teams score in Paris SG vs Lyon?
The chance that both teams score is 61%.
When is Paris SG vs Lyon?
The Ligue 1 match kicks off 26 October 2026, 19:30 (UK time).
Who is the referee for Paris SG vs Lyon?
The referee is Jerome Brisard. In 21 matches in our data they showed 4.2 yellow cards a match on average.