Ligue 1Matchday 7
Lyon vs Nice: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 4d 12hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS57%54%O2.558%52%|exp. goals 1.7 : 1.1
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Lyon2:0NiceW
- Nice3:2LyonL
- Nice0:2LyonW
- Lyon4:1NiceW
- Lyon1:0NiceW
Lyon's record: 4 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss3.0 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.1league 9.6over 9.5: 55%Expected corners: 10.1 in this match, 9.6 on average in the league.In this league 49% of matches end over 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.4league 3.6under 3.5: 55%Expected yellow cards: 3.4 in this match, 3.6 on average in the league.In this league 46% of matches end under 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 21%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market2.0 : 1.1total 3.1Attack/defence1.7 : 1.1total 2.8
Lyon : NiceMost likely scores
Market1-111%1-09%2-110%2-09%0-0—0-1—3-16%Attack/defence1-112%1-011%2-110%2-09%0-07%0-16%3-1—
MarketAttack/defence1-11-111%1-112%1-01-09%1-011%2-12-110%2-110%2-02-09%2-09%0-00-0—0-07%0-10-1—0-16%3-13-16%3-1—
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81%76% | 76% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 80%77% | 77% |
| 12 – no draw | 77%76% | 76% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 64%70% | 70% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58%52% | 52% |
| 1 – Lyon win | 57%53% · Elo 63% | 53%· Elo 63% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 57%54% | 54% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 43%47% | 47% |
| Both teams to score: no | 43%46% | 46% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42%48% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36%30% | 30% |
| X – draw | 23%25% · Elo 21% | 25%· Elo 21% |
| 2 – Nice win | 20%23% · Elo 16% | 23%· Elo 16% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 19%24% | 24% |
Attack vs defence
Lyon attack vs Nice defenceattack1548defence1479+69 pts to the attack
Nice attack vs Lyon defenceattack1452defence1537−85 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 8.5 · 54%close to the league averageunderover 46%
We expect 8.4 in this match, 8.6 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.559%60%
8.546%49%
9.534%38%
10.523%28%
Each team on its own
Lyonwe expect 4.8, league average 4.7 · chance of over 4.5: 51%
Nicewe expect 3.5, league average 3.8 · chance of over 3.5: 46%
Foulsleague average
Under 21.5 · 61%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 39%
We expect 20.3 in this match, 21.5 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.20.547%53%
21.539%47%
22.533%41%
23.527%36%
Each team on its own
Lyonwe expect 9.7, league average 10.8 · chance of over 10.5: 38%
Nicewe expect 10.5, league average 10.7 · chance of over 10.5: 47%
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 61%close to the league averageunderover 39%
We expect 3.2 in this match, 3.4 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.561%63%
3.539%43%
4.522%26%
5.511%14%
Each team on its own
Lyonwe expect 1.5, league average 1.8 · chance of over 1.5: 42%
Nicewe expect 1.7, league average 1.6 · chance of over 1.5: 48%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Nice matches average only 2.1 cards (league 3.9) Average cards of both teams in their last 10 league matches. Cards depend mostly on the referee.
- Lyon matches average 12.8 corners (league 9.6) Average corners of both teams in their last 10 league matches.
- Nice score a lot late on: 8 of 19 after the 75th minute Last 20 league matches. Usually about 25% of goals come after the 75th minute.
- Lyon: 9 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
- Nice: 7 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Lyon | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11:4 | 11 |
| 9 | Nice | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5:7 | 8 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Lyon vs Nice?
Lyon are the favourites. Chances: Lyon win 57%, draw 23%, Nice win 20%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Lyon vs Nice?
Expected goals: 3.1 (Lyon 2.0, Nice 1.1). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 58%. Most likely score: 1-1.
Will both teams score in Lyon vs Nice?
The chance that both teams score is 57%.
When is Lyon vs Nice?
The Ligue 1 match kicks off 18 October 2026, 19:45 (UK time).