Ligue 1Matchday 7
Strasbourg vs Paris SG: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 3d 9hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS65%60%O2.573%59%|exp. goals 1.3 : 1.8
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Strasbourg1:2Paris SGL
- Paris SG3:3StrasbourgD
- Strasbourg2:1Paris SGW
- Paris SG4:2StrasbourgL
- Strasbourg1:2Paris SGL
Strasbourg's record: 1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses4.2 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.3league 9.6under 9.5: 55%Expected corners: 9.3 in this match, 9.6 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end under 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.4league 3.6under 3.5: 56%Expected yellow cards: 3.4 in this match, 3.6 on average in the league.In this league 46% of matches end under 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 21%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.2 : 2.6total 3.8Attack/defence1.3 : 1.8total 3.0
Strasbourg : Paris SGMost likely scores
Market1-17%1-29%0-1—1-38%0-28%0-37%2-1—2-2—Attack/defence1-111%1-210%0-18%1-3—0-28%0-3—2-17%2-26%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-17%1-111%1-21-29%1-210%0-10-1—0-18%1-31-38%1-3—0-20-28%0-28%0-30-37%0-3—2-12-1—2-17%2-22-2—2-26%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 90%81% | 81% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 85%73% | 73% |
| 12 – no draw | 83%76% | 76% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 73%59% | 59% |
| 2 – Paris SG win | 68%49% · Elo 68% | 49%· Elo 68% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 65%60% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 53%36% | 36% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 47%64% | 64% |
| Both teams to score: no | 35%40% | 40% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 32%51% | 51% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 27%41% | 41% |
| X – draw | 17%24% · Elo 19% | 24%· Elo 19% |
| 1 – Strasbourg win | 15%27% · Elo 13% | 27%· Elo 13% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 10%19% | 19% |
Attack vs defence
Strasbourg attack vs Paris SG defenceattack1531defence1628−97 pts to the attack
Paris SG attack vs Strasbourg defenceattack1678defence1473+205 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Over 8.5 · 63%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 37%over
We expect 9.8 in this match, 8.6 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.574%60%
8.563%49%
9.551%38%
10.539%28%
Each team on its own
Strasbourgwe expect 5.1, league average 4.7 · chance of over 4.5: 56%
Paris SGwe expect 5.3, league average 3.8 · chance of over 3.5: 75%
Foulsleague average
Under 21.5 · 76%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 24%
We expect 18.1 in this match, 21.5 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.20.530%53%
21.524%47%
22.518%41%
23.514%36%
Each team on its own
Strasbourgwe expect 9.8, league average 10.8 · chance of over 10.5: 40%
Paris SGwe expect 7.9, league average 10.7 · chance of over 10.5: 19%
Offsidesleague average
Over 3.5 · 59%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 41%over
We expect 4.2 in this match, 3.4 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.578%63%
3.559%43%
4.540%26%
5.524%14%
Each team on its own
Strasbourgwe expect 2.2, league average 1.8 · chance of over 1.5: 64%
Paris SGwe expect 2.0, league average 1.6 · chance of over 1.5: 59%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Strasbourg concede 2.0 goals per game
- Strasbourg: 8 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
- Strasbourg: 6 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
- Paris SG: 7 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Paris SG | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11:8 | 11 |
| 11 | Strasbourg | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11:12 | 7 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Strasbourg vs Paris SG?
Paris SG are the favourites. Chances: Strasbourg win 15%, draw 17%, Paris SG win 68%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Strasbourg vs Paris SG?
Expected goals: 3.8 (Strasbourg 1.2, Paris SG 2.6). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 73%. Most likely score: 1-2.
Will both teams score in Strasbourg vs Paris SG?
The chance that both teams score is 65%.
When is Strasbourg vs Paris SG?
The Ligue 1 match kicks off 17 October 2026, 16:15 (UK time).