Ligue 1Matchday 8
Toulouse vs Troyes: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 10d 11hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS58%53%O2.559%52%|exp. goals 1.8 : 1.0
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Toulouse4:1TroyesW
- Troyes0:3ToulouseW
- Toulouse1:0TroyesW
- Troyes0:0ToulouseD
- Toulouse1:0TroyesW
Toulouse's record: 4 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses2.0 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.5league 9.6under 9.5: 52%Expected corners: 9.5 in this match, 9.6 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end under 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.5league 3.6under 3.5: 55%Expected yellow cards: 3.5 in this match, 3.6 on average in the league.In this league 46% of matches end under 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 21%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.9 : 1.1total 3.0Attack/defence1.8 : 1.0total 2.8
Toulouse : TroyesMost likely scores
Market1-111%1-08%2-110%2-09%0-0—3-16%0-1—Attack/defence1-112%1-011%2-110%2-010%0-07%3-1—0-16%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-111%1-112%1-01-08%1-011%2-12-110%2-110%2-02-09%2-010%0-00-0—0-07%3-13-16%3-1—0-10-1—0-16%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82%76% | 76% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 79%79% | 79% |
| 12 – no draw | 77%76% | 76% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 63%70% | 70% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59%52% | 52% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 58%53% | 53% |
| 1 – Toulouse win | 56%55% · Elo 58% | 55%· Elo 58% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 44%45% | 45% |
| Both teams to score: no | 42%47% | 47% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 41%48% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37%30% | 30% |
| X – draw | 23%24% · Elo 24% | 24%· Elo 24% |
| 2 – Troyes win | 21%21% · Elo 19% | 21%· Elo 19% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 18%24% | 24% |
Attack vs defence
Toulouse attack vs Troyes defenceattack1495defence1414+81 pts to the attack
Troyes attack vs Toulouse defenceattack1407defence1516−109 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 8.5 · 51%close to the league averageunderover 49%
We expect 8.7 in this match, 8.6 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.562%60%
8.549%49%
9.537%38%
10.526%28%
Each team on its own
Toulousewe expect 5.2, league average 4.7 · chance of over 4.5: 57%
Troyeswe expect 3.6, league average 3.8 · chance of over 3.5: 48%
Foulsleague average
Over 21.5 · 66%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 34%over
We expect 24.2 in this match, 21.5 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.20.572%53%
21.566%47%
22.559%41%
23.552%36%
Each team on its own
Toulousewe expect 14.0, league average 10.8 · chance of over 10.5: 79%
Troyeswe expect 10.5, league average 10.7 · chance of over 10.5: 48%
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 59%close to the league averageunderover 41%
We expect 3.3 in this match, 3.4 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.563%63%
3.541%43%
4.524%26%
5.512%14%
Each team on its own
Toulousewe expect 1.7, league average 1.8 · chance of over 1.5: 49%
Troyeswe expect 1.6, league average 1.6 · chance of over 1.5: 46%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Troyes: 4 defeats in a row
- Troyes: newly promoted
- Toulouse: 8 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
- Troyes: 7 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Toulouse | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 9:11 | 6 |
| 17 | Troyes | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4:13 | 4 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Toulouse vs Troyes?
Toulouse are the favourites. Chances: Toulouse win 56%, draw 23%, Troyes win 21%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Toulouse vs Troyes?
Expected goals: 3.0 (Toulouse 1.9, Troyes 1.1). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 59%. Most likely score: 1-1.
Will both teams score in Toulouse vs Troyes?
The chance that both teams score is 58%.
When is Toulouse vs Troyes?
The Ligue 1 match kicks off 24 October 2026, 16:15 (UK time).