Ligue 1Matchday 6

Troyes 0-2 Marseille: prediction, tips and result

·

Troyes
0-02-12-60-20-2
0-2Full time(half time 0-0)
Marseille
1-20-12-30-24-0
Stadium:
Stade de l'Aube, Troyes
Referee:
Guillaume Paradis

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Main tip
Cards (yellow=1, red=2): Under 4.5Lost68%

2.2 card points a match in the hosts' matches, 4.4 in the visitors', league average 4.1; scoring: yellow 1, red 2, second yellow 3 in total

Other tips

  • Shots on Target – Marseille: Over 3.5Lost65%

    our numbers for Marseille: 4.5 shots on target against a league average of 3.8; Marseille: 4.6 shots on target a match, Troyes's opponents had 5.4 on average, league average 3.8

  • Offsides – Troyes: Over 1.5Won60%

    our numbers for Troyes: 2.1 offsides against a league average of 1.8

For the brave
Cards (yellow=1, red=2): Under 2.5Lost31%

under 2.5 card points in 3 of the hosts' last 5 league matches and 1 of the visitors' last 5 (23% of league matches); scoring: yellow 1, red 2, second yellow 3 in total

How our tips did

The match in numbers

1X2EloTroyes165626%25%Draw25%26%Marseille183849%48%favourite won
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS60%58%O2.559%55%|exp. goals 1.3 : 1.6not both scored
H2Hlast 5 meetings
  1. Marseille3:1TroyesL
  2. Troyes0:2MarseilleL
  3. Troyes1:1MarseilleD
  4. Marseille1:0TroyesL
  5. Troyes2:3MarseilleL
Troyes's record: 0 wins, 1 draw, 4 losses2.8 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.5league 9.6under 9.5: 53%Expected corners: 9.5 in this match, 9.6 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end under 9.5 corners.won · ended 9
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.5league 3.6under 3.5: 54%Expected yellow cards: 3.5 in this match, 3.6 on average in the league.In this league 46% of matches end under 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 14%.lost · ended 5
RefereeG. Paradis0.0 yellow cards vs average18 matches
Dutching(several bets at once)72%O2.51:1coverageleague 64% · H2H 3/5not covered

Prediction: result and goals

Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.3 : 1.8total 3.1Attack/defence1.3 : 1.6total 2.9
Troyes : Marseille
Most likely scores
Market1-111%1-210%0-18%0-28%2-17%1-0—Attack/defence1-112%1-29%0-19%0-28%2-17%1-07%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-111%1-112%1-21-210%1-29%0-10-18%0-19%0-20-28%0-28%2-12-17%2-17%1-01-0—1-07%
OutcomeMarketAttack/defence
Over 1.5 goals82%78%78%
12 – no draw75%75%75%
X2 – away team avoid defeat74%71%71%
Under 3.5 goals64%67%67%
Both teams to score: yes60%58%58%
Over 2.5 goals59%55%55%
1X – home team avoid defeat51%54%54%
2 – Marseille win49%46% · Elo 48%46%· Elo 48%
Under 2.5 goals41%45%45%
Both teams to score: no40%42%42%
Over 3.5 goals36%33%33%
1 – Troyes win26%29% · Elo 25%29%· Elo 25%
X – draw25%25% · Elo 26%25%· Elo 26%
Under 1.5 goals18%22%22%
Attack vs defence
Troyes attack vs Marseille defenceattack1411defence1516−105 pts to the attack
Marseille attack vs Troyes defenceattack1573defence1415+158 pts to the attack

1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.

Shots on target, fouls, offsides

Shots on targetleague average
Over 8.5 · 54%close to the league averageunder 46%over
We expect 9.0 in this match, 8.6 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
7.566%60%
8.554%49%
9.541%38%
10.530%28%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Troyeswe expect 4.6, league average 4.7 · chance of over 4.5: 48%
Marseillewe expect 4.5, league average 3.8 · chance of over 3.5: 65%
Foulsleague average
Over 21.5 · 54%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 46%over
We expect 22.4 in this match, 21.5 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
20.562%53%
21.554%47%
22.547%41%
23.541%36%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Troyeswe expect 10.5, league average 10.8 · chance of over 10.5: 48%
Marseillewe expect 11.4, league average 10.7 · chance of over 10.5: 57%
Referee: 22.6 fouls per match on average (18 matches in our data)+1.1 vs the league average
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 54%close to the league averageunderover 46%
We expect 3.5 in this match, 3.4 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
2.567%63%
3.546%43%
4.528%26%
5.514%14%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Troyeswe expect 2.1, league average 1.8 · chance of over 1.5: 61%
Marseillewe expect 1.4, league average 1.6 · chance of over 1.5: 42%

Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.

Worth knowing before kick-off

  • Marseille: 4 defeats in a row
  • Marseille: only 10 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 16 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
  • Troyes: newly promoted
  • Troyes: 22 days since the last match, 0 matches in the last 14 days.
  • Marseille: 21 days since the last match, 0 matches in the last 14 days.

League form

Troyes

Marseille

League position

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
13Marseille62049:86
17Troyes61144:134
Full league table

Frequently asked questions

What was the result of Troyes vs Marseille?

Troyes 0-2 Marseille (half time 0-0).

Did the Troyes vs Marseille tip win?

Our pre-match tip: Cards (yellow=1, red=2): Under 4.5. The tip lost.

See also