EliteserienMatchday 23

Fredrikstad 1-1 Tromso: prediction, tips and result

·

Fredrikstad
1-04-11-21-11-1
1-1Full time(half time 0-1)
Tromso
3-23-50-20-02-3
Stadium:
Fredrikstad Stadion, Fredrikstad
Referee:
Ola Hobber Nilsen

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Main tip
Cards (yellow=1, red=2): Under 3.5Lost61%

2.7 card points a match in the hosts' matches, 2.6 in the visitors', league average 3.7; our numbers: 3.2 card points against a league average of 3.7; scoring: yellow 1, red 2, second yellow 3 in total

Other tips

  • Shots on Target – Fredrikstad: Under 4.5Lost57%

    Fredrikstad: under 4.5 shots on target in 7 of their last 10 league matches, Tromso's opponents had under 4.5 in 9 of 10 (46% of league matches); 3.6 shots on target a match, Tromso's opponents had 3.4 on average, league average 5.2

For the brave
Cards (yellow=1, red=2): Under 2.5Lost40%

2.7 card points a match in the hosts' matches, 2.6 in the visitors', league average 3.7; under 2.5 card points in 4 of the hosts' last 10 league matches and 5 of the visitors' last 10 (32% of league matches); scoring: yellow 1, red 2, second yellow 3 in total

How our tips did

The match in numbers

1X2EloFredrikstad160432%35%Draw27%27%Tromso168741%38%favourite did not win
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS56%52%O2.551%47%|exp. goals 1.3 : 1.3both scored
H2Hlast 5 meetings
  1. Tromso4:0FredrikstadL
  2. Tromso0:0FredrikstadD
  3. Fredrikstad0:1TromsoL
  4. Tromso3:0FredrikstadL
  5. Fredrikstad0:0TromsoD
Fredrikstad's record: 0 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses1.6 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.7league 10.9over 10.5: 50%Expected corners: 10.7 in this match, 10.9 on average in the league.In this league 53% of matches end over 10.5 corners.lost · ended 10
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.0league 3.3under 3.5: 65%Expected yellow cards: 3.0 in this match, 3.3 on average in the league.In this league 54% of matches end under 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 10%.lost · ended 5
RefereeO. Hobber Nilsen−0.4 yellow cards vs average12 matches
Dutching(several bets at once)70%1X1:2coverageleague 75% · H2H 2/5covered

Prediction: result and goals

Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.3 : 1.5total 2.8Attack/defence1.3 : 1.3total 2.6
Fredrikstad : Tromso
Most likely scores
Market1-113%1-0—0-19%1-29%0-07%2-18%Attack/defence1-113%1-010%0-110%1-28%0-08%2-18%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-113%1-113%1-01-0—1-010%0-10-19%0-110%1-21-29%1-28%0-00-07%0-08%2-12-18%2-18%
OutcomeMarketAttack/defence
Over 1.5 goals77%72%72%
12 – no draw73%73%73%
Under 3.5 goals71%75%75%
X2 – away team avoid defeat68%64%64%
1X – home team avoid defeat59%64%64%
Both teams to score: yes56%52%52%
Over 2.5 goals51%47%47%
Under 2.5 goals49%53%53%
Both teams to score: no44%48%48%
2 – Tromso win41%36% · Elo 38%36%· Elo 38%
1 – Fredrikstad win32%37% · Elo 35%37%· Elo 35%
Over 3.5 goals29%25%25%
X – draw27%28% · Elo 27%28%· Elo 27%
Under 1.5 goals23%28%28%
Attack vs defence
Fredrikstad attack vs Tromso defenceattack1405defence1563−158 pts to the attack
Tromso attack vs Fredrikstad defenceattack1525defence1533−8 pts to the attack

1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.

Shots on target, fouls, offsides

Shots on targetleague average
Under 9.5 · 61%close to the league averageunderover 39%
We expect 8.8 in this match, 9.1 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
8.551%55%
9.539%43%
10.528%34%
11.519%21%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Fredrikstadwe expect 4.3, league average 5.2 · chance of over 5.5: 27%
Tromsowe expect 4.1, league average 4.0 · chance of over 3.5: 58%
Foulsleague average
Under 20.5 · 54%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 46%
We expect 20.3 in this match, 21.0 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
19.554%57%
20.546%52%
21.539%43%
22.532%35%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Fredrikstadwe expect 10.2, league average 10.6 · chance of over 10.5: 44%
Tromsowe expect 10.8, league average 10.4 · chance of over 10.5: 51%
Referee: 17.9 fouls per match on average (16 matches in our data)−1.6 vs the league average
Offsidesleague average
Under 2.5 · 51%close to the league averageunderover 49%
We expect 2.6 in this match, 2.7 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
1.573%75%
2.549%50%
3.527%28%
4.513%13%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Fredrikstadwe expect 1.3, league average 1.4 · chance of over 1.5: 37%
Tromsowe expect 1.3, league average 1.3 · chance of over 1.5: 37%

Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.

Worth knowing before kick-off

  • Tromso score 2.3 goals per game
  • Fredrikstad: 21 days since the last match, 0 matches in the last 14 days.
  • Tromso: 21 days since the last match, 0 matches in the last 14 days.

League form

Fredrikstad

Tromso

League position

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
3Tromso22116541:3039
8Fredrikstad2285926:3329
Full league table

Frequently asked questions

What was the result of Fredrikstad vs Tromso?

Fredrikstad 1-1 Tromso (half time 0-1).

Did the Fredrikstad vs Tromso tip win?

Our pre-match tip: Cards (yellow=1, red=2): Under 3.5. The tip lost.

See also