EkstraklasaMatchday 10
Cracovia 3-1 Zaglebie: prediction, tips and result
·
- Stadium:
- Marshal Jozef Pilsudski Stadium, Krakow
- Referee:
- Tomasz Marciniak
Our tips
Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.
Main tip
Cards (yellow=1, red=2): Under 4.5Lost70%
referee Tomasz Marciniak averages 3.2 card points a match, league average 4.2; our numbers: 3.6 card points against a league average of 4.2; scoring: yellow 1, red 2, second yellow 3 in total
For the brave
Cards (yellow=1, red=2): Under 2.5Lost32%
referee Tomasz Marciniak averages 3.2 card points a match, league average 4.2; scoring: yellow 1, red 2, second yellow 3 in total
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS54%51%O2.551%46%|exp. goals 1.4 : 1.1both scored
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Zaglebie0:0CracoviaD
- Cracovia0:0ZaglebieD
- Zaglebie1:2CracoviaW
- Cracovia1:1ZaglebieD
- Zaglebie1:1CracoviaD
Cracovia's record: 1 win, 4 draws, 0 losses1.4 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.9league 9.8over 9.5: 53%Expected corners: 9.9 in this match, 9.8 on average in the league.In this league 50% of matches end over 9.5 corners.lost · ended 6
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.4league 4.0under 3.5: 56%Expected yellow cards: 3.4 in this match, 4.0 on average in the league.In this league 46% of matches end under 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 9%.lost · ended 5
RefereeT. Marciniak−0.8 yellow cards vs average18 matches
Dutching(several bets at once)66%BTTS yes1:0coverageleague 67% · H2H 3/5covered
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.6 : 1.1total 2.7Attack/defence1.4 : 1.1total 2.5
Cracovia : ZaglebieMost likely scores
Market1-113%1-010%2-110%2-09%0-08%0-1—Attack/defence1-113%1-011%2-19%2-08%0-09%0-19%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-113%1-113%1-01-010%1-011%2-12-110%2-19%2-02-09%2-08%0-00-08%0-09%0-10-1—0-19%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76%71% | 71% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 75%71% | 71% |
| 12 – no draw | 73%73% | 73% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 72%76% | 76% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 54%51% | 51% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51%46% | 46% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 50%57% | 57% |
| 1 – Cracovia win | 49%43% · Elo 39% | 43%· Elo 39% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 49%54% | 54% |
| Both teams to score: no | 46%49% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28%24% | 24% |
| X – draw | 26%27% · Elo 29% | 27%· Elo 29% |
| 2 – Zaglebie win | 24%29% · Elo 33% | 29%· Elo 33% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 24%29% | 29% |
Attack vs defence
Cracovia attack vs Zaglebie defenceattack1448defence1509−61 pts to the attack
Zaglebie attack vs Cracovia defenceattack1456defence1512−56 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 8.5 · 53%close to the league averageunderover 47%
We expect 8.5 in this match, 8.6 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.560%61%
8.547%51%
9.535%39%
10.524%24%
Each team on its own
Cracoviawe expect 4.4, league average 4.7 · chance of over 4.5: 45%
Zaglebiewe expect 3.9, league average 3.9 · chance of over 3.5: 54%
Foulsleague average
Over 23.5 · 53%close to the league averageunder 47%over
We expect 24.3 in this match, 23.8 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.22.560%59%
23.553%52%
24.547%47%
25.540%41%
Each team on its own
Cracoviawe expect 12.1, league average 11.8 · chance of over 11.5: 54%
Zaglebiewe expect 11.8, league average 12.0 · chance of over 11.5: 51%
Referee: 25.8 fouls per match on average (9 matches in our data)+1.0 vs the league average
Offsidesleague average
Under 2.5 · 52%close to the league averageunderover 48%
We expect 2.6 in this match, 2.8 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.1.573%75%
2.548%50%
3.527%32%
4.513%17%
Each team on its own
Cracoviawe expect 1.4, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 40%
Zaglebiewe expect 1.2, league average 1.4 · chance of over 1.5: 34%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Cracovia matches average only 2.7 cards (league 4.1) Average cards of both teams in their last 10 league matches. Cards depend mostly on the referee.
- Cracovia: 4 defeats in a row
- Cracovia: 21 days since the last match, 0 matches in the last 14 days.
- Zaglebie: 20 days since the last match, 0 matches in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Zaglebie | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 12:13 | 15 |
| 11 | Cracovia | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 12:15 | 11 |
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Cracovia vs Zaglebie?
Cracovia 3-1 Zaglebie (half time 0-1).
Did the Cracovia vs Zaglebie tip win?
Our pre-match tip: Cards (yellow=1, red=2): Under 4.5. The tip lost.