Liga Portugal 2Matchday 5

Penafiel 4-1 Academica: prediction, tips and result

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Stadium:
Estadio Municipal 25 de Abril, Penafiel
Referee:
Helder Carvalho

The match in numbers

1X2EloPenafiel139640%41%Draw30%28%Academica136130%31%favourite won
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS48%50%O2.541%46%|exp. goals 1.4 : 1.1both scored
H2Hlast 5 meetings
  1. Academica0:0PenafielD
  2. Penafiel0:0AcademicaD
  3. Penafiel1:2AcademicaL
  4. Academica2:1PenafielL
  5. Academica3:0PenafielL
Penafiel's record: 0 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses1.8 goals per match
Cornersleague cornerstoo few matches
Cardsleague cardstoo few matches
RefereeH. Carvalho−1.0 cards vs average24 matches

Prediction: result and goals

Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.2 : 1.1total 2.3Attack/defence1.4 : 1.1total 2.5
Penafiel : Academica
Most likely scores
Market1-114%1-011%0-011%0-110%2-18%2-0—Attack/defence1-113%1-011%0-09%0-19%2-19%2-08%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-114%1-113%1-01-011%1-011%0-00-011%0-09%0-10-110%0-19%2-12-18%2-19%2-02-0—2-08%
OutcomeMarketAttack/defence
Under 3.5 goals80%76%76%
1X – home team avoid defeat70%71%71%
12 – no draw70%73%73%
Over 1.5 goals68%71%71%
X2 – away team avoid defeat60%56%56%
Under 2.5 goals59%54%54%
Both teams to score: no52%50%50%
Both teams to score: yes48%50%50%
Over 2.5 goals41%46%46%
1 – Penafiel win40%44% · Elo 41%44%· Elo 41%
Under 1.5 goals32%29%29%
X – draw30%27% · Elo 28%27%· Elo 28%
2 – Academica win30%29% · Elo 31%29%· Elo 31%
Over 3.5 goals20%24%24%
Attack vs defence
Penafiel attack vs Academica defenceattack1504defence1488+16 pts to the attack
Academica attack vs Penafiel defenceattack1491defence1513−22 pts to the attack

1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.

Worth knowing before kick-off

  • Penafiel matches average only 7.1 corners (league 9.5) Average corners of both teams in their last 10 league matches.
  • Academica: newly promoted
  • Penafiel: 6 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
  • Academica: 7 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.

League form

League position

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
4Penafiel741214:713
6Academica740310:1012
Full league table

Frequently asked questions

What was the result of Penafiel vs Academica?

Penafiel 4-1 Academica (half time 2-0).