Minnesota United 2-2 Houston Dynamo: prediction, tips and result

Sunday 11 October · 01:30

Minnesota United

4-5 1-2 2-4 2-3 1-3

2-2Full time(half time 0-1)

Houston Dynamo

0-2 2-2 0-1 2-1 0-0

Stadium:: Allianz Field, Saint Paul, MN
Referee:: Marcos De Oliveira

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: 10 October 2026, 21:40. A published tip never changes.

Main tip

Cards (yellow=1, red=2): Under 4.5Won66%

referee Marcos De Oliveira averages 2.9 card points a match, league average 4.5; our numbers: 3.8 card points against a league average of 4.5; scoring: yellow 1, red 2, second yellow 3 in total

Other tips

Shots on Target – Minnesota United: Under 5.5Lost73%
Minnesota United: 4.5 shots on target a match, Houston Dynamo's opponents had 3.0 on average, league average 5.0; under 5.5 shots on target in 7 of their last 10 league matches, Houston Dynamo's opponents had under 5.5 in 9 of 10 (61% of league matches)
Offsides – Minnesota United: Under 1.5Won61%
Minnesota United: under 1.5 offsides in 7 of their last 10 league matches, Houston Dynamo's opponents were caught offside under 1.5 times in 8 of 10 (55% of league matches); Houston Dynamo's opponents were caught offside 0.8 times on average, league average 1.6
Fouls – Houston Dynamo: Under 10.5Won66%
our numbers for Houston Dynamo: 9.3 fouls against a league average of 10.4; Houston Dynamo: 8.3 fouls a match, Minnesota United's opponents committed 10.2 on average, league average 10.4

For the brave

Cards (yellow=1, red=2): Under 3.5Won49%

referee Marcos De Oliveira averages 2.9 card points a match, league average 4.5; our numbers: 3.8 card points against a league average of 4.5; scoring: yellow 1, red 2, second yellow 3 in total

How our tips did

The match in numbers

1X2EloMinnesota United140745%42%Draw26%28%Houston Dynamo142229%30%favourite did not win

Goalsattack/defenceBTTS58%51%O2.555%47%|exp. goals 1.5 : 1.1both scored

H2Hlast 5 meetings

26/06/202526/06/25Minnesota United3:1Houston DynamoW
15/05/202515/05/25Houston Dynamo2:0Minnesota UnitedL
14/07/202414/07/24Houston Dynamo1:1Minnesota UnitedD
14/04/202414/04/24Minnesota United1:2Houston DynamoL
13/07/202313/07/23Houston Dynamo0:3Minnesota UnitedW

Minnesota United's record: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses2.8 goals per match

Cornersleague corners10.0league 10.0under 10.5: 59%Expected corners: 10.0 in this match, 10.0 on average in the league.In this league 57% of matches end under 10.5 corners.won · ended 7

Yellow cardsleague yellows3.6league 4.1under 4.5: 71%Expected yellow cards: 3.6 in this match, 4.1 on average in the league.In this league 59% of matches end under 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 11%.won · ended 2

RefereeM. De Oliveira−1.3 yellow cards vs average12 matches

Dutching(several bets at once)68%O2.51:1coverageleague 71% · H2H 4/5covered

Prediction: result and goals

Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams

Expected goals

Market1.6 : 1.3total 2.9Attack/defence1.5 : 1.1total 2.5

Minnesota United : Houston Dynamo

Most likely scores

Market1-112%1-08%2-19%2-07%0-0—0-1—1-27%Attack/defence1-113%1-011%2-19%2-09%0-08%0-18%1-2—

MarketAttack/defence1-11-112%1-113%1-01-08%1-011%2-12-19%2-19%2-02-07%2-09%0-00-0—0-08%0-10-1—0-18%1-21-27%1-2—

Outcome	Market	Attack/defence
Over 1.5 goals	79%72%	72%
12 – no draw	74%73%	73%
1X – home team avoid defeat	71%74%	74%
Under 3.5 goals	68%75%	75%
Both teams to score: yes	58%51%	51%
X2 – away team avoid defeat	55%53%	53%
Over 2.5 goals	55%47%	47%
1 – Minnesota United win	45%47% · Elo 42%	47%· Elo 42%
Under 2.5 goals	45%53%	53%
Both teams to score: no	42%49%	49%
Over 3.5 goals	32%25%	25%
2 – Houston Dynamo win	29%26% · Elo 30%	26%· Elo 30%
X – draw	26%27% · Elo 28%	27%· Elo 28%
Under 1.5 goals	21%28%	28%

Attack vs defence

Minnesota United attack vs Houston Dynamo defenceattack1519defence1578−59 pts to the attack

Houston Dynamo attack vs Minnesota United defenceattack1404defence1504−100 pts to the attack

1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.

Shots on target, fouls, offsides

Shots on targetleague average

Under 9.5 · 65%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 35%

We expect 8.5 in this match, 9.1 on average in the league.

LineChance of overLeague

8.547%53%

9.535%42%

10.524%32%

11.516%24%

Both teams combined. Main line in bold.

Each team on its own

Minnesota Unitedwe expect 4.3, league average 5.0 · chance of over 5.5: 27%

Houston Dynamowe expect 3.8, league average 4.1 · chance of over 4.5: 33%

Foulsleague average

Under 21.5 · 52%close to the league averageunderover 48%

We expect 21.6 in this match, 21.1 on average in the league.

LineChance of overLeague

20.556%53%

21.548%45%

22.541%39%

23.535%33%

Both teams combined. Main line in bold.

Each team on its own

Minnesota Unitedwe expect 11.5, league average 10.7 · chance of over 10.5: 58%

Houston Dynamowe expect 9.3, league average 10.4 · chance of over 10.5: 33%

Referee: 23.5 fouls per match on average (137 matches in our data)+1.0 vs the league average

Offsidesleague average

Under 3.5 · 72%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 28%

We expect 2.7 in this match, 3.1 on average in the league.

LineChance of overLeague

2.550%59%

3.528%39%

4.514%20%

5.56%11%

Both teams combined. Main line in bold.

Each team on its own

Minnesota Unitedwe expect 1.4, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 39%

Houston Dynamowe expect 1.2, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 35%

Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.

Worth knowing before kick-off

Minnesota United concede 2.5 goals per game
Minnesota United: 8 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
Minnesota United: 5 defeats in a row
Minnesota United: only 6 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 15 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
Minnesota United: 14 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
Houston Dynamo: 14 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.

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