USL ChampionshipMatchday 611
Louisville City vs Pittsburgh: prediction, tips and stats
·
1.4:0.8Pre-match
Our tips
Tip in 1d 4hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defence
BTTS47%43%O2.545%38%|exp. goals 1.4 : 0.8H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Pittsburgh3:1Louisville CityL
- Louisville City0:2PittsburghL
- Pittsburgh0:2Louisville CityW
- Louisville City0:0PittsburghD
- Pittsburgh0:1Louisville CityW
Louisville City's record: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses1.8 goals per match
Cornersleague cornersin line with the league
9.1league 9.2under 9.5: 58%Expected corners: 9.1 in this match, 9.2 on average in the league.In this league 55% of matches end under 9.5 corners.Yellow cardsleague yellows
3.9league 4.2under 4.5: 65%Expected yellow cards: 3.9 in this match, 4.2 on average in the league.In this league 57% of matches end under 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 16%.Referee
no referee dataPrediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.6 : 0.8total 2.4Attack/defence1.4 : 0.8total 2.2
Louisville City : PittsburghMost likely scores
Market1-013%1-112%0-09%2-011%2-19%0-1—Attack/defence1-015%1-113%0-011%2-010%2-19%0-19%
MarketAttack/defence1-01-013%1-015%1-11-112%1-113%0-00-09%0-011%2-02-011%2-010%2-12-19%2-19%0-10-1—0-19%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 81%78% | 78% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 76%82% | 82% |
| 12 – no draw | 75%72% | 72% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72%65% | 65% |
| 1 – Louisville City win | 56%49% · Elo 52% | 49%· Elo 52% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 55%62% | 62% |
| Both teams to score: no | 53%57% | 57% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 47%43% | 43% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45%38% | 38% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 44%51% | 51% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 28%35% | 35% |
| X – draw | 25%28% · Elo 25% | 28%· Elo 25% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24%18% | 18% |
| 2 – Pittsburgh win | 19%22% · Elo 23% | 22%· Elo 23% |
Attack vs defence
Louisville City attack vs Pittsburgh defenceattack1635defence1643−8 pts to the attack
Pittsburgh attack vs Louisville City defenceattack1409defence1565−156 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 7.5 · 53%close to the league averageunderover 47%
We expect 7.5 in this match, 7.9 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.6.561%59%
7.547%48%
8.534%32%
9.523%26%
Each team on its own
Louisville Citywe expect 4.6, league average 4.4 · chance of over 4.5: 47%
Pittsburghwe expect 2.8, league average 3.4 · chance of over 3.5: 31%
Foulsleague average
Under 23.5 · 71%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 29%
We expect 20.7 in this match, 23.1 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.22.535%56%
23.529%48%
24.523%44%
25.519%38%
Each team on its own
Louisville Citywe expect 10.2, league average 11.4 · chance of over 11.5: 34%
Pittsburghwe expect 10.2, league average 11.7 · chance of over 11.5: 33%
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 70%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 30%
We expect 2.8 in this match, 3.0 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.552%57%
3.531%39%
4.515%18%
5.57%14%
Each team on its own
Louisville Citywe expect 1.6, league average 1.6 · chance of over 1.5: 46%
Pittsburghwe expect 1.2, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 33%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Pittsburgh matches average only 2.9 cards (league 4.4) Average cards of both teams in their last 10 league matches. Cards depend mostly on the referee.
- Louisville City: 6 days since the last match, 3 matches in the last 14 days.
- Pittsburgh: 6 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
Eastern Conference
| # | Team | Played | Won | Drawn | Lost | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Louisville City | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 51:43 | 47 |
| 5 | Pittsburgh | 30 | 13 | 6 | 11 | 33:30 | 45 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Louisville City vs Pittsburgh?
Louisville City are the favourites. Chances: Louisville City win 56%, draw 25%, Pittsburgh win 19%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Louisville City vs Pittsburgh?
Expected goals: 2.4 (Louisville City 1.6, Pittsburgh 0.8). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 45%. Most likely score: 1-0.
Will both teams score in Louisville City vs Pittsburgh?
The chance that both teams score is 47%.
When is Louisville City vs Pittsburgh?
The USL Championship match kicks off 30 October 2026, 22:30 (UK time).
See also
- USL Championship: table, fixtures and results
- USL Championship stats: over/under, BTTS, corners and cards
- All matches that day
- The clubs' other match this season: Louisville City 0-2 Pittsburgh ()
- The clubs' other match this season: Pittsburgh 3-1 Louisville City ()
- Louisville City: Elo rating
- Pittsburgh: Elo rating