USL ChampionshipMatchday 611
Tampa Bay vs Miami: prediction, tips and stats
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1.9:0.9Pre-match
Our tips
Tip in 1d 13hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defence
BTTS54%50%O2.563%52%|exp. goals 1.9 : 0.9H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Tampa Bay1:2MiamiL
- Miami2:3Tampa BayW
- Tampa Bay2:1MiamiW
- Miami1:2Tampa BayW
- Tampa Bay2:0MiamiW
Tampa Bay's record: 4 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss3.2 goals per match
Cornersleague cornersin line with the league
9.1league 9.2under 9.5: 57%Expected corners: 9.1 in this match, 9.2 on average in the league.In this league 55% of matches end under 9.5 corners.Yellow cardsleague yellowsin line with the league
4.3league 4.2under 4.5: 58%Expected yellow cards: 4.3 in this match, 4.2 on average in the league.In this league 57% of matches end under 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 16%.Referee
no referee dataPrediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market2.4 : 0.9total 3.3Attack/defence1.9 : 0.9total 2.8
Tampa Bay : MiamiMost likely scores
Market1-08%2-011%1-19%2-110%3-08%0-0—Attack/defence1-012%2-011%1-111%2-110%3-07%0-07%
MarketAttack/defence1-01-08%1-012%2-02-011%2-011%1-11-19%1-111%2-12-110%2-110%3-03-08%3-07%0-00-0—0-07%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 87%83% | 83% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84%76% | 76% |
| 12 – no draw | 83%77% | 77% |
| 1 – Tampa Bay win | 70%60% · Elo 64% | 60%· Elo 64% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63%52% | 52% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 59%70% | 70% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 54%50% | 50% |
| Both teams to score: no | 46%50% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41%30% | 30% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 37%48% | 48% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 30%40% | 40% |
| X – draw | 17%23% · Elo 21% | 23%· Elo 21% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 16%24% | 24% |
| 2 – Miami win | 13%17% · Elo 15% | 17%· Elo 15% |
Attack vs defence
Tampa Bay attack vs Miami defenceattack1591defence1434+157 pts to the attack
Miami attack vs Tampa Bay defenceattack1430defence1556−126 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Over 7.5 · 52%close to the league averageunder 48%over
We expect 7.8 in this match, 7.9 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.6.566%59%
7.552%48%
8.539%32%
9.527%26%
Each team on its own
Tampa Baywe expect 4.3, league average 4.4 · chance of over 4.5: 43%
Miamiwe expect 3.5, league average 3.4 · chance of over 3.5: 45%
Foulsleague average
Over 23.5 · 68%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 32%over
We expect 26.8 in this match, 23.1 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.22.574%56%
23.568%48%
24.562%44%
25.556%38%
Each team on its own
Tampa Baywe expect 14.2, league average 11.4 · chance of over 11.5: 73%
Miamiwe expect 13.0, league average 11.7 · chance of over 11.5: 63%
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 57%close to the league averageunderover 43%
We expect 3.4 in this match, 3.0 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.565%57%
3.543%39%
4.525%18%
5.513%14%
Each team on its own
Tampa Baywe expect 1.6, league average 1.6 · chance of over 1.5: 45%
Miamiwe expect 1.8, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 54%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Miami concede a lot late on: 14 of 33 after the 75th minute Last 20 league matches. Usually about 25% of goals come after the 75th minute.
- Tampa Bay score a lot late on: 15 of 35 after the 75th minute Last 20 league matches. Usually about 25% of goals come after the 75th minute.
- Tampa Bay: 6 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
- Miami: 13 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
Eastern Conference
| # | Team | Played | Won | Drawn | Lost | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tampa Bay | 30 | 18 | 7 | 5 | 52:26 | 61 |
| 8 | Miami | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | 39:49 | 36 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Tampa Bay vs Miami?
Tampa Bay are the favourites. Chances: Tampa Bay win 70%, draw 17%, Miami win 13%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Tampa Bay vs Miami?
Expected goals: 3.3 (Tampa Bay 2.4, Miami 0.9). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 63%. Most likely score: 2-0.
Will both teams score in Tampa Bay vs Miami?
The chance that both teams score is 54%.
When is Tampa Bay vs Miami?
The USL Championship match kicks off 30 October 2026, 23:30 (UK time).